Round 1

[Sandbag]

"Thank the gods you're dubbed"

[Sandbag]

I concede that it's probably related-to-me bias but Kazuya is killing these messages.

Episode title: If people enjoy being called pathetic and told to die, I'm a wordsmith of the highest caliber.

[Sandbag]

I think there's probably at least some correlation between who starts messages and how well they do.

So far, every PM has been started by Richter, Dark Pit, Duck Hunt, Link, Kazuya and Squirtle. I feel like it usually ends up being these people who stick the most in people's minds when it comes to choosing tribes and on impressions once those tribes are met, so I'm early expecting these 6 to have at least a somewhat comfortable starting position. (duck hunt less so with only the two messages)

[Masahiro Sakurai]

The progression towards the eventual three Smash Ball passwords by the collective cast has been interesting. Squirtle basically has it, which is about what I expected. Samus and Falco are doing well there too. Link is off a bit, and a few of the others are aware of the clues. This will provide an extra incentive to join a tribe early for the people who might get the password, provided they figure out that they're not able to access it now.

[Crazy Hand]

Feb 10, 2022 14:32:21 GMT 10 Sandbag said:

I think there's probably at least some correlation between who starts messages and how well they do.

So far, every PM has been started by Richter, Dark Pit, Duck Hunt, Link, Kazuya and Squirtle. I feel like it usually ends up being these people who stick the most in people's minds when it comes to choosing tribes and on impressions once those tribes are met, so I'm early expecting these 6 to have at least a somewhat comfortable starting position. (duck hunt less so with only the two messages)

the interesting thing though will be whether they all join the same tribe, and the other tribe becomes more inactive?

[Masahiro Sakurai]

There's currently a vague plan being formed by Wario, Kazuya and King Dedede to attend the Green Team together along with Dark Pit. Dark Pit's inclusion in this plan seems to be predicated on a strong bond with Kazuya. This quartet would be one to watch, but I worry a little about Wario's stated intent to go straight to the ring. I'm unsure how strong he'll be in the duel, and putting up a less than stellar opening effort could lead to him being perceived as an easy target.

[Crazy Hand]

Feb 10, 2022 17:42:09 GMT 10 Masahiro Sakurai said:

There's currently a vague plan being formed by Wario, Kazuya and King Dedede to attend the Green Team together along with Dark Pit. Dark Pit's inclusion in this plan seems to be predicated on a strong bond with Kazuya. This quartet would be one to watch, but I worry a little about Wario's stated intent to go straight to the ring. I'm unsure how strong he'll be in the duel, and putting up a less than stellar opening effort could lead to him being perceived as an easy target.

How did Wario/Daini go in challenges in Vietnam?

It's possible doing decently there made him overestimate his ability when competing against actual forum veterans

[Master Hand]

I haven't commented until now because I could never find the energy required, but now I'm here with some stray thoughts

This cast is fantastic and I'm sure they're going to deliver an outstanding game, that all survived confirmations is iconic. There's an interesting balance of people familiar with Arena vs those who have never played anything like it before. The character play is already strong and that should continue throughout.

These Day 1 situations are often a question of doing too much vs doing too little, in terms of strategic investment and communication. To an extent veterans are more likely to hold back because we're jaded from years of messaging and want to escape a free-for-all setting, lmao, but it is also wise not to create unnecessary obligations when one doesn't need to. It can be short term gain for long term pain sometimes.

[Master Hand]

As far as challenge sluts go:

Falco and King Dedede have numerous duel victories from all the Arena ORGs I've hosted them in, over some stellar competition. I gather that Dark Pit is always very strong in this way (he was in Ghibli for sure), and I vaguely remember reading the same about Pyra & Mythra? Someone who knows better can confirm that. I'd say those are the highest tier.

I think Sakurai would rate all of Yoshi, Marth, Squirtle and Piranha Plant highly from his own experiences with them, but in a veteran setting like this it is hard to know if their small amount of games played will mean that form translates or not. Of these four I'd say Squirtle has gained the most insight from hosting his own game and playing at ORGY, while Piranha Plant is the one I'm most comfortable would definitely slay if required to do so.

Captain Falcon, Robin and Richter have all been around for over a decade and have more or less seen everything. Richter may belong with the four I discussed first honestly, but I always remember him being wary of specific concepts. Captain Falcon can dominate things that suit his skillset but he isn't really a technical sort of competitor, neither is Robin. They can hold their own yet may also have things go hella wrong.

Mario, Donkey Kong, Link, Wii Fit Trainer, Wario and King K Rool are all making their debuts outside Australian Survivor. All had good challenge resumes on debut, however they're even less known quantities than Yoshi, Marth, Squirtle and Piranha Plant are. King K. Rool's debut was over four years ago too. Wii Fit Trainer and Donkey Kong are the two in this six who had multiple individual wins in AS, so if that holds it'd bode well for them.

Samus is often cited as someone good at challenges but as Sandbag noted after Cambodia that isn't really supported by any evidence I think it is because she comes across as someone who *should* compete but her repertoire isn't as consistent as she rarely plays. Duck Hunt also has an iconic hat-trick of duel wins from Super Mario Party, but only the first of those contributes to this analysis, lmao <3 I'm not really sure how they'll go, I feel like team challenges is more their skillset?

I don't think Kazuya has played anything since 2013 and neither Tarzan nor Monsieur Kaye were noted challenge sluts, so his situation is a more extreme version of King K. Rool's. Isabelle joined ORGY after my time and I have no read on what she'd be like as a competitor, I don't have any stray references of success like I think I do with Pyra and Mythra.

Ike ofc is completely new and this is not an ideal setting for that

[Sandbag]

Definitely reads a bit intensely the quickness Green has filled out. They need some fillers to vote out or they risk eating themselves too quickly.

[Crazy Hand]

Feb 10, 2022 19:07:05 GMT 10 Sandbag said:

Definitely reads a bit intensely the quickness Green has filled out. They need some fillers to vote out or they risk eating themselves too quickly.

that's what i meant when i said all those active early people are going to pile on the same tribe... and then they're gonna have to cut each other. While there might be a tribe of comparatively more inactives

[Crazy Hand]

Not surprised about Wario finding the Smash Ball quickly but super amused at Squirtle's frustrations, truly tragic hunt 

[Masahiro Sakurai]

On Red, Robin has shared the clue with Wii Fit and seems poised to do the same with Samus. Right now I'd say that team looks pretty comfortable. I would suspect everyone there now bar Donkey Kong will be safe for quite a while. I would lean towards suspecting Falco and Marth would go to blue, as well, so it's possible that they end up with Mario and Isabelle, and that buys them a few rounds. I expect Robin and Samus at least are basically assured of seeing the swap already; not bad for a first day.

Meanwhile, I'd hate to be on Green; seven active players could present a lot of chaos early. The fact that they filled up so fast is dire for them too; I can't see many duelists heading there willingly given how intimidating that is. A big part of this is the actions of Wario, who is at least partially responsible for basically everyone who ended up there. That is a tough situation to escape without any early blood on your hands. Have to give him credit for the Smash Ball find though! Dark Pit is in quite the pickle, separated from his ideal allies and roped into an alliance he knows he's the fourth wheel in. He'll be a key figure in the early rounds.

Blue is a bit of a nothing team atm, Squirtle, Richter and Captain Falcon are all great in their own way but there's no big chemistry there yet. Ike looks a little lost early, but if things work out he could have a while to settle in. Even if he wasn't new, there's a distinct anti-weeb sentiment some feel, and that could be rough. The looming likely Falco addition will certainly help to galvanise the group, with the Falco(n) dynamic and his links to Squirtle from early in the day. Squirtle has overthought the Smash Ball, meanwhile, probably reading into my style a bit too much.

Yoshi has variously elicited reactions of amusement and bewilderment, and immediately been ID'd by Squirtle, because of course. Doing well in the duel is not unlikely, but I'm sure where they would go? Presumably to wherever the most eggs are? I'm internally bracing for a revolving door, or a cruel scenario where an egg holder tells him to self-vote. He might be better off just abandoning that idea entirely, but I don't think he's the sort to not see an idea through.

[Crazy Hand]

lol Yoshi is 100% committing to this idea, even if it risks being a tragic premerge boot again

[Crazy Hand]

I was thinking of trying to play a beta role in this since it suits the character to be a lead-from-behind type of player but I am just so desperate for the validation that comes from being an alpha king in these games that I'm not sure I can pretend otherwise.

lol classic Robin
will be interesting to see him take on a beta role