Round 2

[Masahiro Sakurai]

This duel will favour trivia god Piranha Plant strongly, whom I hate for picking it because it was the thing I had to put off fixing up yesterday when the booster killed me. Yoshi is likely to flop, and it doesn't suit him as much as he thinks for that to happen, given he's more likely to be sent in if perceived as fodder.

Mario and Ike will play for survival most likely, and I feel like I favour Mario just because of the presence of an AFL question he'd get all day, every day. Ike is an unknown quantity though, and this duel is one that is approachable for newbies.

[Sandbag]

We like Ike! We like Ike!

[Sandbag]

liked*

[Masahiro Sakurai]

So the outcome is locked in now, with Mario and Piranha Plant both outperforming Ike; it's just a matter of waiting for Yoshi. Piranha Plant stomped the duel despite its apparent lack of feet; that will probably give people some pause about sending him in again for a while. He'll almost certainly head to Blue, where I think he could be safe for a fair while.

As for the votes, Red looks to be turfing DK, but if a shift happens to the 24-hour MIA-Isabelle, that would be no surprise. Marth is a certainty at Blue, but if he takes the time to read the format, maybe he'll realise that he could pick his own duel? He'll probably win whatever he picks for himself, and a fresh start with more spare time could see him gain traction elsewhere as Falco noted.

Green is the most interesting; in the improbable event Yoshi goes there he's doomed. If they pick up another duelist, the King K. Rool vs Link decision will be one to watch. Link seemed to be safer, but I think King K. Rool's flurry of messages has seen Wario want to expend some of that social clout he's built up on saving him. We shall see.

[Master Hand]

I'll save Master Fingers until after the round when we know the actual outcomes.

It is always fascinating to me to watch each tribe in an Arena ORG develop their identity and meta, the culture that impacts their voting decisions and the reputation they have across the game overall. At the moment I feel like all three teams have developed in different ways and it is very possible we see two of them go down to the wire before the week is over and done with.

To me, the Red Team is the best positioned in the long run. I can't imagine a scenario where it makes sense for neither surviving duelist to head over there, even if they have just been voted out by them. They do have a core alliance but it is kinda by default and there is a lot of wariness within it, so any new arrival would have a serious chance of being safe for the rest of the phase if they head there. Tonight they're voting Isabelle, although it could be a hilariously scattered tally despite her absences.

I'd have said Green Team was worst positioned in the long run, but the conversations between Robin and Dark Pit make me wonder if Green could be more desirable than Blue eventually. Most of those paying attention can clearly see that the team filled too quickly to be coincidental, and news of the various playstyles has been leaking out. If they sent in Link or King K. Rool as initially seemed likely this round would be a real reverse of fate for them, but giving Mario the revolving door can only be bad for them.

Blue is an odd situation right now. They're doing the logical thing and voting Marth into the Ring. The 4-3 vote tally on Ike, rather than making them desirable, is instead creating suspicion and undermining their chances overall. If Piranha Plant is immune again that'll certainly give any duelist pause of joining them, and the five original members still there are all players one wouldn't expect to leave so soon.

To me, if you want to get off your tribe, this is absolutely the round to do so. I think Marth in particular is going to have a serious chance at longevity here if he can make it to the Red Team and click with those you'd expect to be natural allies for him like Robin and Samus. King K. Rool hustling to save himself may go against him in terms of the big picture along those lines.

[Galleom]

He fought for his friends.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

So I never got to blog to this, will do so now.

On Red, Duck Hunt's high bid predictably left some Red heads scratched. Bidding aggressively and without the knowledge of anyone else has given a few players pause. If the team was more active, it could actually pose a problem. This round has seen Donkey Kong's stocks rise considerably, establishing a bond with Samus that elevated him from the presumptive target to a potential swap berth without seeing the arena... if he plays his cards right. Isabelle and Wii Fit going MIA has helped matters there too.

On Blue, Marth going in was inevitable, but he left in a way that leaves the door open. If he uses his spare time to recover well, I hold out hope for him to survive a while. The big story is the potential for Pyra and Mythra or Captain Falcon to have a shock early visit to The Ring.

On Green, I am super proud of K Rool's hustle and awareness. Link is in big danger, and that's a testament to K Rool being more responsive to the situation and recognising danger better. Having said that, duelling now might just have been better than duelling later. He may need to expend serious resources to reach the swap, or face a tough early set of opponents.