Round 4

[Masahiro Sakurai]

So that happened

Rocks on Blue, Mario Tysoning himself on Red, and Wario "volunteering" when he was likely getting the boot? The last round was insane and it is only down to 20! Oh, and Isabelle left, too, I guess.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

This round could have a very early duel result, which might let dynamics settle a bit. Richter is attempting the challenge as I write this and appears to have messed up permissions. If you told me six hours ago that Richter would be in mortal danger in The Ring now, I would have been absolutely floored.

[Tabuu]

Well Mario has already survived the duel with a time almost half of Richter's (9ish minutes against 18), so Richter will need a miracle to survive this duel over Wario

[Masahiro Sakurai]

You have to feel for the Blue Team here. They legitimately have the messiest 3rd round of an ORG I have ever witnessed, the obvious boot Piranha Plant is vulnerable, and then still nobody will come to visit them.

Meanwhile, Green is having Wario do Wario things trying to coordinate an entire group strategy while the rest of the team just nods in bemusement. It is iconic, and Wario is delivering in all of the best ways I'd hoped for when he signed up, but people still keep joining the team! Insane stuff, and I can't wait to see them scatter once the swap arrives in a couple of days.

Stray notes:

On Piranha Plant: They have not really stepped things up like they need to in order to survive. They've had some funny moments but they can't build any depth to their relationships.

On self-voters: Yoshi had done well to recover his standing, but Wii Fit has plummeted from the double missed deadline. WFT will surely duel soon, while Yoshi might make swap over Duck Hunt, who could be outbid by him for being extremely predictable. Again. B99 F7 vibes.

On Spectator Stands: The same people keep getting in cheap or even free. Dark Pit and Robin will surely be united at the swap given the mechanic, where I suspect they will probably be dominant until merge unless they overplay their hand or are too visible.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Link is very unsubtly not-coercing Marth into "volunteering", and I can't with this plan they have. I wouldn't be surprised if this got turned around on Link, actually. It does seem like Kazuya and Link are committed to the green plan, whereas Dark Pit and King Dedede are more sceptical. If Marth is to be spared, it would be those votes and King K Rool that would do it. Either way, I think this round will be damaging to Green's long-term cohesion.

On Red, Wii Fit Trainer is going in, having essentially volunteered, when the outcome was locked in from the second the consecutive self-votes were revealed.

For Blue, the emerging storyline is that Falcon is going to campaign to keep Plant by trying to get a Pyra and Mythra or Falco vote from Squirtle. If Plant survives the vote I would be shocked, since I think Squirtle would sooner take his more established relationships going forward.

[Sandbag]

Haven't really been keeping up with the strategy much, but I have some thoughts!

Funnily enough despite a really rocky/hectic start, Green is sort of impressing me in a completely unintentional way.

They're just that right level of messy and approchable that makes people want to find new ground there, and they've maintained their numbers so it continues to feel like there's a lot of room to play there. They've also not had to test any of their alliances in any meaningful way yet, and everyone sort of knows it. They're equal parts totally transparent and yet untrustworthy.

My understanding is that you've got a bunch of different little microgroups.

You've got Link and K.Rool on one side, Dedede and Kazuya on the other. Wario in the middle keeping everyone in check, Marth just sort of floating around to whoever will take him, and Dark Pit just sitting back and watching the mess as it happens. There's so much wiggle room and it's really just waiting for one key person or one key move to sort of catalyze the entire group into next gear... But the longer they can keep this fizzle the more appealing they'll be, the better set up in the future rounds.

I think of everyone here Dedede and Dark Pit are the ones to watch for longevity as both are wielding their experience with expertise. The only real threat to either of them is some overplay from Wario/Link/K.Rool in some way. Kazuya having a very very low key presence could work in his favour if some anti-green sentiment is born in a swap/merge, although he is probably seen as one of the less approachable members of the team. I think it would be good for Kazuya to enter the ring sooner than later and come out victorious, both for his character/performance/enjoyment and for his positioning in the game. He needs some sort of presence and a chance to interact with some of the other teams and establish himself beyond his day 1 impressions. If nothing else go for that Grab Bag. It's hilarious that Dark Pit just gets to keep it though so I'm here for that as well.

Dark Pit is defintiely going to have wary eyes on him because of that, especially with his relationships with Robin/Samus as they develop. Unless people just don't care lol. I don't remember seeing many people comment on it in confessional but maybe when they are swapped together people will bring it up as a concern and try and split them up.

Red is sort of similar but in a far less dynamic way. You've got a core group here which doesn't really exist on Green. Samus, Robin are a bit of a nexus around which the tribe circles. You've got DK making inroads with Samus/Robin, you've got their presumed foursome with Duck Hunt/Wii Fit (with the later deservedly going into the ring for selfvotes) and the eternal also-ran in Mario (also with a Yoshi Egg, so maybe they can find an in).

Interestingly, with Wii Fit going into the Duel, literally every remaining member of this tribe will have a Yoshi Egg and therefore equal sway on their actions? lololol what a mess. I have no idea whether it's best to keep or vote out Yoshi, since they don't really care where he goes and if Yoshi makes merge they have control over him anyway. Very curious to see which way that goes.

Lastly.... Blue. I honestly don't know what to even think about this group. It seems like they got all the most experienced most social players grouped together and everyone is avoiding them like the plague because it's a terrifying thought. I also have little faith that they'll be able to find any solid footing in a swap/merge and wouldn't be surprised if we see them voted into the ring again and again, with their experience being a major boon for them sticking around through the duels. If they can meet up with others like Samus, Robin, Dedede, Dark Pit who share their mentality then there's a chance they end up forming a new group to run the table with but I would be pretty disappointed if it came down to that.

Outside of someone being voted out and returning to Blue... or MAYBE Mario if he's voted again, I just don't see any reason for anyone to go to Blue. They're now so low that it would be quite difficult (seemingly, we know they're fractured af) to break into the group.

[Sandbag]

It's such a uniquely Samus thing to not be reading enough to notice that votes don't have comments, and to still leave them (Or she does notice and those comments are just for us, which is also very her)

[Master Hand]

It's what that round deserved:

~TEAM RED MASTER FINGERS~

THE THUMB



I have to discuss Wii Fit Trainer multiple times so won't be too expansive. Even if we take away the fact she self-voted the last two nights she would still stick out and have the sort of attention on her she does. The specific issue is her reaction to Yoshi. She's never sent him any communication since the game started and has been irritating Robin in particular with her concerns over Yoshi's approach. I think going into the Arena can only be good for her now, tp be able to refocus and redefine her game.

THE INDEX FINGER



Team Red's Team Meeting was most notable for how disorganised it was, 3-2-2 and all, but it is impossible not to give the nod to Robin in this context as he's been the most influential presence from Day 1. It is Papz in an Arena ORG, what else were we expecting tbh His experience is serving him well in so many ways, and I feel like his straightforwardness is going to serve him well in so many ways in this. Unlike Link and especially DK, he isn't going to be entering the next stage of things with more emotional histories than he can handle without melting down along the way.

THE MIDDLE FINGER



Self-voting is something that happens to everyone and I absolutely hope Wii Fit Trainer can bounce back from it, but yeah, twice in the opening three rounds of the game means I can't not give her this title. If we had a rule where self-votes multiplied by 2 each time she would certainly have been dueling this time, so lucky for her we always forget to implement that idea in the rules each new ORG, lmao.

THE RING FINGER



Robin and Samus are the obvious duo on Team Red, sure, but I want to acknowledge this particular bond because I think it has been key to the new core we've seen form on Team Red the last 48 hours or so. Samus was the first to notice that DK was consistent and reliable, offering sensible insights and worthy of staying around over those who had initially made better impressions. DK likewise saw the opportunity to work with Samus after his initial intended allies fell through.

THE PINKY



It really is something how far one can get just from being capable and doing all the right things. It took Gerald a couple days to get going too before he became the force he was, and DK having that same trajectory in this setting would be amazing to watch. Observing him you can see how he is becoming more open-minded about things he was initially resistant to and can recognise the state of play well. That he'll survive the phase without dueling, when we thought he might be second in from the Red Team, is a good endorsement of his play until now.

[Master Hand]

~TEAM BLUE MASTER FINGERS~

THE THUMB



So before the Team Meetings yesterday Squirtle was perfectly insulated and trusted. Everybody liked him and he had insight into every possible development on the tribe. He was everywhere but also unnoticed in ways that were beneficial. And I feel like that was his undoing in the end. His impulsive conversations and voting to spare Captain Falcon at Pyra & Mythra's expense caused his actual #1 to go into the Ring through Purple Rock and be lost forever. His standing with others is much weaker and his position more exposed. Before there was a suspension of disbelief about his character (since it is obviously a character play and the mind behind is different) that has now been lost. He'll have to reckon with that eventually.

THE INDEX FINGER



Captain Falcon avoiding the Ring despite being the only vulnerable player outside a Night 1 alliance was remarkable and a masterclass in Arena gameplay IMO. What I notice from reading his confessionals is the way he accepted he could not know everything, but acted correctly with regard to everything he did know and suspect, and it got him through in a way that surprised even us. Imagine if he had not invested in getting Piranha Plant on side, or continually proved his value as each day went on? And in the aftermath he's worked in mending fences with Pyra & Mythra, to what seems to be genuine reception.

THE MIDDLE FINGER



Alas Squirtle has gone back to confessing in shtick after initially taking a break, and so I'm unable to decipher his updates again It's a tough situation. I absolutely understand the dedication to being in-character and will always admire his commitment. The ultimate judges will be the cast moreso than us in this sense. I'm sure he'll feature in the other categories with time.

THE RING FINGER



I haven't checked Lakitu today to see how the conversation is progressing between these two (three?) but from what I saw last night it could genuinely be the beginning of something special. The girls had often left Captain Falcon on read in the days leading into that Team Meeting, and after he opened a dialogue about fixing things between them the girls seem to have legitimate interest in the idea. Pyra & Mythra explained the initial alliance of four to Captain Falcon and would vote Squirtle before him according to their prevote list. It is such a shocking thing to have your understanding of the dynamics sideswiped like both Captain Falcon and Pyra & Mythra have, so perhaps this shared experience will allow great things between them from here.

THE PINKY



I would never guess this was Yog if I wasn't co-hosting. So far Falco has been playing a cautious and understated game, clearly determined to not get his wings clipped anytime soon. It hasn't all gone to plan for him so far, but the pieces are now starting to come together and he is in the most secure spot in Team Blue IMO. Captain Falcon respected his stances, Pyra & Mythra are an obvious ally, and he survived that scare the same way Squirtle did. His Attack Card play is also perfectly timed to not clash with anyone else and see off a duel he loathes, lol <3

[Sandbag]

I would love some more in depth on how exactly Captain Falcon instrumented/assisted/facilitated the tie vote, because that's huge. From a non-reading PM's perspective it seemed like a mess/happenstance so this is even cooler news.

[Master Hand]

Feb 16, 2022 18:37:13 GMT 10 Sandbag said:

I would love some more in depth on how exactly Captain Falcon instrumented/assisted/facilitated the tie vote, because that's huge. From a non-reading PM's perspective it seemed like a mess/happenstance so this is even cooler news.

It kinda was mess/happenstance still lol, but he secured Piranha Plant ahead of everyone and that opened the door for Squirtle to consider keeping him, and he kept his relationships strong while Pyra & Mythra had started to fade outside the group chain. I loved that he didn't panic at the red flags he was seeing and accepted that it may not be as it seemed to him, he just had to continue acting in good faith to the rest.

[Master Hand]

~TEAM GREEN MASTER FINGERS~

THE THUMB



Where does one begin? Wario's actions in recent days have become notorious and been heavily gossiped about at the Spectator Stands and between duelists at the Ring. The issue, as noted by Dark Pit and King Dedede, is that Wario gathered so many of his own numbers to Team Green that he was betraying someone by default if there was no revolving door. I can definitely see where Wario was genuine with his scheme and one cannot deny that he achieved what he intended to do. The problem is that his style of play is creating long-term problems and he doesn't have a read on how dire that situation is becoming. Something will have to give soon.

THE INDEX FINGER



I'm giving this to Dark Pit because of the numerous ways he is undermining the things he does not like about his standing in the game without anyone being any the wiser. He was more than ready to send Wario into the Ring whether he stayed on his volunteer scheme or backed out, and find a kindred spirit in King Dedede to support that effort. At Spectator Stands he has given plenty of information to Robin and Samus yet also left out details he'd benefit keeping to himself. He even told Richter the stage Link was going to choose for Wario so he could ban it if he wanted to It was a strong showing for sure.

THE MIDDLE FINGER



I didn't notice anything I could have fun with in this sense and need to get this finished before the round, so I'm just going to give this to Dharkon for now and may edit something else in later

THE RING FINGER



As noted above, these two have identified each other as kindred spirits amid all the shenanigans constantly occurring at Team Green, and from this I feel like Dedede is the only one Dark Pit would definitely vouch for to his Spectator Stand connections during the swap. Dedede will further get to develop this situation when he goes to the Spectator Stands with Samus and Captain Falcon (as I write this) tonight. It surprises me a little that these two aren't trying to save Marth here with the Pinky of the tribe but I suppose they're saving that battle for another time.

THE PINKY



It is pretty easy to imagine scenarios where King K. Rool had to duel. Fortunately for him he recognised that things were shaky right as Team Green were agreeing they could not revolving door another duelist, so he snatched the Shield Sandbag to ensure his own safety. Since then K. Rool has proven himself logical and strategic to the rest of the team, being complimented for these traits in conversations between others. He was the one who seemed to be last to approve of the volunteer scheme, not entirely on purpose, but to me has milked that entire situation to his advantage well.

[Tabuu]

Today's Tabuu topic of the day is... drug use Because Blue must have been on something to create that last round.

Blue Team

I mean... what was that last round Blue is having an easier time today it seems, but last round having MULTIPLE split votes that turned into rocks and ended in the most liked player on the tribe losing the duel in 20th place is insane. If you had told me he was going to lose the next duel even 2 minutes before the vote deadline last round I would have laughed in your face. Thank god for this group of messes.

Sadly, it looks like today is just a Piranha boot, which I get. The other four are putting real effort into this game and he is only posting images. It's hilarious though.

Falco - Okay I am stanning his "older woman on a Survivor season who gets overly emotional over cutting people #SurvivorBreakdown" journey Seems to like people too much for his own good and is cut up on the moral implications of every move possible. I think he's potentially in the safest spot too?

Captain Falcon - LOVE that he survived when even we were resigned to him being sent into the duel, his survival was legitimately shocking. Way to make my post last round look outdated! Captain Falcon has fully turned his game around here, and Richter dying was honestly the best thing that could've happened to him. He's got an ally in Squirtle, is now making a path with Pythra and seems to be doing a lot better now. Could even avoid being the boot next round if he can get Pythra to go after Squirtle instead, which she might?

Pyra/Mythra - Last round I complained that they weren't making an impact. They're making an impact now, and I'm very glad to see it. I was worried about how they'd take getting voted like that, but I am happy that they seem to not hold a grudge towards Falcon for the vote and are moving forward from here. That narrow survival last round is breathing new life into the twins, when before they were simply coasting.

Piranha Plant - Legend. Absolutely deserved boot, but legend nonetheless. I want them to win the duel and keep trucking along for a long time. Will 100% duel next round too if they don't get the shield this round though.

Squirtle - I am viewing Squirtle a lot better after reading that confessional of his that was actually intelligible. Still a truly terrible shtick, but if he keeps the confessional posts somewhat readable then I will read it.

Green Team

Ok so they decided to be heavily unified instead of splintering like I would've expected. Their volunteer plan is very obvious and will likely only hurt the people who try to push that narrative forward, but it is somewhat interesting to witness. I think they're playing the short game well, but may isolate themselves once the other teams catch on to what they're doing. Some, like Dark Pit, are already trying to avert the perception, but others are heavily on team Green forever and may go down with the ship.

May have become the boring tribe, shockingly?

Dark Pit - His Spectator posts remain the most interesting part about this team, and I really do want to see where he goes moving forward. I think he's setting himself up to be a great character here and building bridges that the other greens simply do not care to build. when people like Link are inevitably picked off, I see him surviving.

King Dedede - The other Green player that could survive if Green falls imo. Dedede is hilarious and him trying to get the Grab item when nobody else besides Pit cares is a good look for him. He's seen as a head honcho of this tribe for very good reason.

King K Rool - Seems to be aware of dynamics and has positioned himself well enough to avoid being a main target, which is good to see. I don't know how long he'd last on another tribe, but he's done well in this one at least. Next round might be a closer call, but I think he's created some support for himself here.

Marth - Don't think I can agree with him deciding to volunteer, and I expect him to die next duel and fully deserve it as his opponents will be challenge stars in some ways. But I am interested in him and how he's on the outside of Green but still somewhat in it. Like he's been manipulated to duel but they don't hate him? Idk.

Kazuya - Is doing well, but also the most Green Strong person around, and I don't think he cares to bond with anyone he'll meet after Green honestly. I'm starting to lose interest sadly.

Link - A bit over his head, but props for not getting voted in when it 100% would've been the smart play for this team!

Red Team

Mess but lowkey about it. I don't think anyone could've called a 3-2-2 vote where both 2's selfvote and the team instantly kinda regrets going for a revolving door. Mario just wants a friend!!! Kinda hilarious as a group, but I think the Mario boot last round was a very bad call. I wouldn't join the team if I were a duelist, even though as a host I know it's the safest team to join right now.

This is a very simple vote and it's also very deserved. WFT, active as she is, keeps forgetting to cast her votes and the cast has to acknowledge it and send her in for that. Mario FINALLY gets a day off

Robin - Meant for bigger things than Red. You can already kinda tell he and Dark Pit both don't care too much about their teams and are more into talking to one another, which I think will translate to when they meet in person. Robin is the safest on the team and it's absolutely deserved, has played very well here.

Donkey Kong - Props have to be made for how DK is now very solidly a core of the tribe, when before he was on the bottom. He's been active and consistent and people have noticed. I am impressed by him right now and hope he can keep building momentum in a swap scenario. Also I have to say i LOVE how petty it is to waste your high cards to get the shield just to cut Duck Hunt from his obvious strategy he's been using all week.

Samus - Like the two above, Samus has been consistent and solid, and is in absolutely no danger. She and Robin are the core of the tribe, while she and DK are the other duo, so I do think she may be the glue that helps Red stick together? CPP force.

Yoshi - Cute! It seems like his tribe is now at the point where they're even debating cutting him in favor of Mario next round. Would love if he would link up with Mario against WFT and Duck Hunt, since those two have really ignored him so far.

Duck Hunt Duo - Excluding the fact that their card plays are very stupid (they did not learn a thing from how bad of a play it was in B99 love Des for that), I think Duck Hunt Duo have faded a little in recent times. I think he's coasting and assuming the early alliance will carry him through the week... which it probably will?

Wii Fit Trainer - Needs to remember to vote. She's fine, but I would have been annoyed if she had survived the vote this round.

The Ring

What do you mean the duel ended 12 hours ago and this section is unneeded?

Richter - KING!!!! His insanity was amazing to behold. Switching his vote because Squirtle wanted to but doing it over the deadline, and then switching his vote again and back during the revote, what a journey. It is insane that he went from beloved player to 20th place, it is one of the worst rounds for a player I've ever seen and I have nothing but love for him for it.

Wario - Insanity and overplaying given form. Wario is a psychopath in this org and I truly adore it, I hope he goes far but I do not have even the slightest faith that he will The fact that this team is actually agreeing to his awful plan is baffling, but I am okay with that.

Mario - The fact that Mario is my least fave duelist when he's one of my faves in the game shows how sad this duel was gonna be, but I am very happy he survived this duel and got a new lease on life. He deserves it. Mario has never really been given a fair shake in this game, and now he finally has the chance to prove his worth and use these two days to make some connections. I hope he does well here.

Top 5:

1. Richter

2. Dark Pit

3. Robin

4. Falco

5. Captain Falcon

[Master Hand]

So our duel is Wii Fit Trainer vs Marth vs Piranha Plant.

I think Red definitely made the right call and Wii Fit Trainer was willing to go in, so all good there. Blue I'm mixed on because it is hard to argue against voting someone like Piranha Plant given their approach, but their going in will only further create doubt they actually went to rocks in the voting allocation spread around Green I think is making a mistake for sure. Several people there could genuinely lock in something with Marth by keeping him and instead they've given him an opening to rekindle connections with Blue or form new ones at Red.

In terms of who would win, that's hard to say. If Falco gets rid of Smashville it could be literally any of them.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Wow, Smashville cops the banhammer from Wii Fit Trainer!

Honestly, this is a potentially bad move; all three duelists will excel at this, not that she has any way of knowing. Braced for a tragic boot scenario.