Round 6

[Masahiro Sakurai]

The swap has happened, and Dark Pit picking Mario is iconic. Can't wait to see how that gets explained away.

[Crazy Hand]

Link has put up an awful time for the 6x6 and should almost definitely lose with the 4x multiplier

Meanwhile Falco has practised this more than 200x apparently and is going to absolutely blitz the challenge... but some choice shit talking from Link has got him doubting himself

Feb 18, 2022 0:38:30 GMT 10 Falco said:

I've been averaging ~40-60 seconds on the 6x6, about 40-120 on the 8x8, and 120-180 on the 10x10s. So the multiplier weighting is fairly accurate. And 10x10 is where you can make the best time.

However, while the main goal is to win, the true goal is to just not lose. And with the 10x10s, every so often you just get stuck, and the grid is too big to parse what you are missing. I've had some 8minute, 10 minutes attempts, and one of those would probably kill me. So 8x8 seemed right.

Buuuuuuuuuut, Link said in-thread:

Feb 17, 2022 23:31:52 GMT 10 Link said:

Well I'm done. Can't imagine a dinosaur or bird doing better than that. You don't know shit about trains.

Might be just shit-talking (which this game has been sorely lacking, good man )or might be that he played the 10square and likes his time. 

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Awwwwww, calling his time awful is mean! It's on the slow side for sure, but I think the context of two opponents who are likely to excel is going to make it seem a lot slower than it is.

Also having to issue a fair few warnings for missing or forgetting the PM Ban in the last 12 hours, which is just swell. Thankfully none of the messages are likely to be damaging to the integrity of the game or I'd be dishing out more of them.

[Master Hand]

I'll do my more structured blogging tomorrow after a good night's sleep. Arena really is a full time job whether you're hosting, co-hosting or playing lol, it was an exhausting week for sure.

Early hunches are that the Pink Team will develop a clear core unless they get rattled by certain outcomes and defeats from the other side. Monday night will probably be the messiest of all there because it'll be likely they're sending someone in against Piranha Plant, and that is an intimidating prospect for anyone now.

Yellow Team is far more undefined. It could be that Marth can be the link to his two prior teams, but I expect things to be fluid overall.

[Sandbag]

Have been catching up on PMs over the weekend and there are some super cool developments. Buuuut with that, some thoughts on a more narrativey faux-edgic analysis perspective coming into the swap.

It feels like, despite their relative activity, Red Team was the complex tribe. They have the most nuance in their storylines.

The Samus/Robin/Dark Pit/Dedede alliance was this slow burn that came to fruition only to happen in an unexpected way, throwing some tension into the works. These are all extremely strong players who I have full faith will be important players in the merge save for Arena Shenanigans. Someone could try and break them up but I think the cross-tribalness could sufficiently obfuscate their control for any decent amount of time and make the Pink tribe the more enticing location for duel winners.

Mario the eternal underdog who finally found a position back home but probably very open to new allies.

DK slowly improving until becoming a confidant for core Red members only to be whisked away, and possibly finding newer allies who are more his speed, or being an easier vote and returning to Pink, being important to the continued dynamics, potentially straining the Spectator foursome with Samus/Robin potentially angling to keep DK.

Duck Hunt probably the least trajectory of the reds, but also seems to not be in much way of danger.

Meanwhile the Green Team feels like the big distractions. Wario is such a big presence and could end up dragging fellow greens down with him. Dark Pit and Dedede have successfully distanced themselves from Green and I can imagine them treating Pink as their new true loyalty. Meanwhile, Wario seems the type who will be super hard banking on teaming up with them again in the merge when they might not be as interested, and have better options to entertain themselves with.

Kazuya is an interesting one here as he's this solid presence who is doing a lot of gruntwork in terms of talking to people and relaying information, but I can't tell if people are taking his wording as just gruff and aggressive, or jovially in character. I feel like being tied to Wario is the worst thing for Kazuya's game right now, but it remains to be seen if Wario will leave a good impression on the former blues. There's a little bit of a dynamic duo with Kaz/Wario in that they seem to at least somewhat keep each other in check with certain strategies though, which is at least interesting. But people already see them as an unbreakble pair, and neither is subtle about referring the other to people in their conversations. These two I could see being in trouble unless people aren't wanting to rock any particular boat.

Marth is slowly coming into his own and finding some true footing with the Green Team despite the vote off. Particularly when his other options are Blue, who also voted him off, I would be interested to see if he gravitates towards the bigger personalities of blue, or if he is being swayed by Green. Notably, Marth/Kazuya seem to be building a solid bit of rapport and I would be interested to see these two become closer allies and work some magic through this tribe, letting the bigger personalities clash, and hiding behind the less social players like Yoshi/DK/Plant. I could easily see Marth/Kazuya be a MOR power duo if Wario leaves early enough, with both of them suffering by association the longer Wario stays (assuming Marth works with them at all)

Pirahna Plant is just an anomaly lol. If they were actually able to communicate and send multiple messages a day I feel like they would actually be incredibly well positioned, but a general lack of effort keeps them from being trusted. Props to Wario/Kazuya for trying, and the former seems to be explicitly attempting to bring them in in a formal way, but that could create an even bigger target on these players than before.

Dark Pit and Dedede are right now big mysteries that in my view are going to serve as secondary characters to Samus/Robin for the forseeable future. They will be solid and active and interesting, but I don't think they'll be driving any votes, and equally willing to throw their lot in with the reds. These are probably end-gamers who are simply biding their time.


Blue Team has gotten a lot of focus due to some crazy early votes and just... messy dynamics. It never felt like any real alliances ever formed here. There was just a bunch of socially strategic players working with and around each other until the bell tolled. I think that these players already have such a big presence and target on them, and none of them except maybe Falco feel like they have particular longevity from here. I don't see their long term relationships, and in that regard the Red/Green duo have them beat in leagues.

If Captain and Squirtle actually do team up here and form a group with Kaz/Wario/Marth I could actually see that lasting a long time, but I worry that Yellow Team will dwindle as Blue team initially did and they'll have to start thinking about eating themselves sooner than later. Which in turn could lead to Captain/Squirtle trying to find other avenues sooner rather than later. Especially if Pyra and Mythra join this team I can see them wanting to break the Greens down and try to adopt Marth who would potentially be more inclined to work with them again if they can show him some real friendship now that he's a little more active.

Falco I think has the biggest narrative here, especially given the duel into the swap and choosing to distance himself from Blue. He could be a bit of a kingmaker on Pink, or could be a handy 5th to bring into the Spectator Foursome and help keep some balance there so that the Red/Green/Blue legacy doesn't cause too much strain on things.

Narratively, I think the tribes (as of the swap) contain Red as the winner, Green as the early merge casualties and Blue probably being down to 2-3 members but then making it deep. It obviously won't work out so cleanly but that seems like the trajectory as I see it. Alternatively, these swapped tribes could be where the real narrative begins. It feels like Pink will definitely be the main strategic focus with Yellow probably being the worst aspects of Green/Blue combined, with overplaying and dwindling numbers being the name of the game.

[Master Hand]

Let's got back in time a bit for:

~THE MASTER FINGERS~

THE THUMB



So after Piranha Plant first survived the Ring everyone took notice of the disparity in their score vs the field, but I don't think it was immediate cause for alarm anyone. They'd chosen the stage and it would follow they'd do well. However scoring 9/10 in Garreg Mach Monastery has cemented their challenge slut status, there's no way around it now. I think this development is significantly concerning for most of the cast as they're all struggling to work with Piranha Plant otherwise? The shtick just isn't allowing it, and I've seen multiple players also say there is a communication frequency issue as well. I see Wario trying to use them in the short-term as I write this, yet long-term it is easy to imagine scenarios where a sizable amount of the game come together for the cause of eliminating Piranha Plant for good.

THE INDEX FINGER



I can't decide between these two so I'm going to give it to them both :nay

It may have not come together the way she expected it would, but I give Samus hella credit for seeking out the captaincy role and working to ensure there was an ideal arrangement waiting for her at the Pink Team. Communicating her wishes to King Dedede in the Spectator Stands was a particularly delicate operation with Captain Falcon also there, but she managed it and even with the hiccup of Dark Pit having Mario first preference it should work out for them all. Her social game continues to impress too, there are some who don't quite click with Robin but everyone at Red felt positively about Samus, even those she doesn't have much time for herself.

Falco meanwhile took matters into his own hands and flew into the Ring, selecting his preferred stage and following through on his public claims of dominance. There are a number of nuances to this play that Falco is well aware of given his history with Arena: He's established himself as a strong competitor, he won't be sent in when the time comes to focus on those who haven't dueled, and he gained agency over his team allocation that wouldn't have occured otherwise. I feel compared to the way I discussed Falco when he was the Pinky that his confidence and proactiveness has become that we expect from Yog more.


THE MIDDLE FINGER



Yeah there isn't a way around this one. I must give credit to Link for immediately conceding his mistake and accepting his penalty, and it a shame he left the game before I could discuss him in the context of another finger, but it only makes sense to talk about his breach at this time. This is a common problem with those who play Closed-ID in the next couple games after their debuts and I don't think it comes from a place of malice. Cast Reveal lands much differently when you expect to have some familiarity with people, it definitely is an exciting thing. That said, and even veterans should remember this, it is a factor we all must tune out to the best of our abilities, and take out of our minds so mishaps like these don't happen. The next time I host a Closed-ID ORG outside AS I'm fairly sure I'm going to block the concept of speculation and such in this sense.

THE RING FINGER



To account for there being two Index Fingers this update I'll do something a little different for this title. The early temptation upon seeing Yoshi's strategy would be to dismiss it outright and expect it not to matter, but a combination of Red having several unreliable players and hella eggs meant Yoshi was actually able to act as a reliable vote for a time. It is clear now that there are twists and turns in the approach that Yoshi himself did not anticipate. Most notable, of course, is Robin openly telling Yoshi that they lose nothing from voting him into the Ring because the eggs obligate him to side with them regardless. And we're seeing the egg factor play out on the Yellow Team as I write this too. The way Yoshi is I think he just wants acknowledgment and respect in his interactions, which is why he accepted his fate, and also why Wii Fit Trainer not even talking to him was a cause of serious irritation.

THE PINKY



Of all the players who have dueled so far, for reasons not on their own terms, I feel like Marth is definitely the one who is most likely to achieve a sense of stability again. It is easy to imagine getting to the merge without having to duel again at all. He's been very forward about the limitations of his timezone and through that can disguise the way he actually feels about his two vote-outs. Sometimes to succeed in an ORG you have to recognise your limitations and adjust to best enhance your chances of staying alive, this is something that Marth is capable of doing. Intentional or not I also think he has this MORP sweetheart energy about him in this, lol. He'll have some major decisions to make this coming round for sure.

[Sandbag]

Falco and Dedede both independently thinking about rallying Mario/K.Rool/Duck Hunt to take out the overdogs Robin/Samus/Dark Pit.


It would be kind of hot

[Sandbag]

Was just thinking about Yoshi's Rules.

Theoretically, could everyone with an egg publicly post (like in the Round 6 public thread) "Yoshi, I command you to vote: X" and yoshi would have to tally it? His rules just say "Every vote Yoshi casts (outside of duel challenges should they require so) will be decided by the majority of votes communicated to Yoshi by Egg holders."

Communicated to is pretty loose.

[Master Hand]

Looking like Donkey Kong vs King K. Rool in the Ring unless there are last minute backflips.

It has been interesting to watch these two teams develop. Pink has a clear power structure with the cross-team Robin/Dark Pit/Samus/King Dedede core , so they'll decide who leaves, but the logic of that is apparent to those outside it too. Falco is cognizant of it and his probing is already causing headaches for some of the others, lol. I'd say Duck Hunt is next in line to leave after King K. Rool even though Mario was ranked by Dark Pit to fill that role.

Yellow Team is a little more complex because the three original Blues found themselves in the middle of separate alliances proposed by Wario and Yoshi. Poor DK entered the team with nobody until Yoshi arrived from the Ring, and other than some empathy from Captain Falcon hasn't yet been able to make up the difference like he did at Red. I'm hoping that Marth isn't just going to concede to whatever Green wants, even with the timezone difference I fully believe he is capable of playing these dynamics with agency.

DK *should* be favoured in the Ring because he preformed consistently well in Vietnam and that is a significantly more recent experience than K. Rool had in Hawaii. However this is a hard matchup to define in terms of what the challenge might actually be. I don't know what either would choose if they planned for it with their Attack Cards, and most others playing Attack Cards would set them up for a hard time I think.

One curious wrinkle with Cards is K. Rool maybe expecting Dedede to use a high Attack play if he knows he is going in? If that doesn't happen it would create some notable implications on how unified Green really is, and would likely be discussed in detail between Wario and Kazuya at the very least.

[Sandbag]

Unless people catch on to Duck Hunt's proclensity for going Shield which he has just bid on, he'll be immune next round and Mario will probably go.

Also, seems like a fairly common discussion for people wanting to bid high on Attack to get rid of Smashville asap, which could cause a duel upset in KRool Surviving.

Also something interesting is Kazuya going for Grab here, suspecting a former Green to go for it, when as far as I can tell nobody on Pink has any interest in it... which means it would default to Samus.


Thats gonna be cute for me at least.

[Sandbag]

Oh lol. Duck Hunt announced it.

It'll be SO telling if someone outbids him too

[Masahiro Sakurai]

I had hoped to do a big long blog thing this weekend but I am exhausted. I will say here that I think Falco taking Smashville out of the picture here and not when Piranha Plant isn't immune is probably a mistake. Speaking of which, as it currently stands, Piranha Plant is slated to win immunity for the low price of nothing, and that could be catastrophic for Blue members on Yellow if things keep looking the way they currently do.

[Falco]

Feb 20, 2022 12:27:33 GMT 10 Sandbag said:

Was just thinking about Yoshi's Rules.

Theoretically, could everyone with an egg publicly post (like in the Round 6 public thread) "Yoshi, I command you to vote: X" and yoshi would have to tally it? His rules just say "Every vote Yoshi casts (outside of duel challenges should they require so) will be decided by the majority of votes communicated to Yoshi by Egg holders."

Communicated to is pretty loose.

Yet another reason Yoshi shoulda sent me an egg!