Round 8

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Another scored quiz concept is chosen in Missing Vowels; the duel winner is hard to pick, though Wario seems confident while Duck Hunt doesn't. The round may just be a bit of a foregone conclusion, with the plans already in place. Piranha Plant is probably slaying M/Wario next in anything remaining, barring a big shift. We'll see what changes.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

I think the incorrect order of the swap from Wario noticed by Squirtle is literally only off by one accidentally swapped pair. Robin picking K Rool who picked Duck Hunt vs Duck Hunt picking K Rool. He'll be none too pleased in dissecting that after being sent in.

[Tabuu]

Squirtle and Wario are handling the fallout from this move about as poorly as they possibly can Squirtle pretending that it's because Wario lied about the pick order, which yeah he did get the order wrong but that obviously was not the reason he was booted and it's almost insulting to his intelligence to pretend it is. And Wario is on the warpath and losing allies because of it.

Pink tribe could get interesting? In that it is basically common knowledge now that Dark Pit, Robin, Samus and Dedede have a core four. Whether the others can get a duelist to join and make the move, or if Mario can be convinced of something that literally everyone else in the game has figured out... unsure. I think Wario would need to win and then cause havoc, knowing DP is not truly on his side. The fact that the biggest question mark is whether Mario will attempt to help himself in the game is a little sad tbh.

Best case scenario for this duel is a Wario win to go to pink, and then either a push for rocks or Mario getting tossed out depending on how it goes. Surely he'll have to figure out that he's on the bottom now and that Robin doesn't have his back? The core four needs some opposition to make it interesting

[Masahiro Sakurai]

It's good to see the rest of the game finally cotton on to the alliance of four on Pink, in terms of things staying competitive. I note that Captain Falcon, perceptive as ever, is the first I've seen say in PMs what I thought was the most telltale sign of that, by noting all of the time they were able to spend alone in various combinations in the Spectator Stands.

The alliance of four may still have it all their own way for this phase, but I'd be shocked if at least one of them didn't get sent in at the merge. A 4-4-4 split is even possible, and that would be catastrophic for them.

[Sandbag]

This game has a good rhythm to it. There's ebbs and flows happening all over the place.

The Pit/Samus/Robin/Dedede alliance on Pink looked to be cruisy, but with Samus' inactivity and Duck Hunt blowing up their spot/confirming suspicions about the Spectator stands, we could be seeing a universe where they make the merge and are summarily rallied against.

Meanwhile, Falco is just squirming in his seat, waiting for an opportunity to shake SOMETHING up but as of yet not being able to. Pythra seems to be happy to go along and stay out of everyone's way for a while which is exactly what they need.

Mario is absolutely clueless but he is also surrounded by actual decades of combined experience here so it's probably not unexpected. Still, a very unfortunate lesson for him is to be learned. Maybe if he's lucky he can scrape to the merge and find a spot to not threaten anyone and make it deep.

I'm actually fairly intrigued as to why the anti-red sentiment is as strong as it is across the board. on Yellow that was a factor in targeting DK, and on Pink it seems to be an underlying current outside of the Spectator alliance, but both greens in that alliance I can see ditching it come merge once they realise how tainted the views of Red are.

But at the same time... Robin and Samus are really the only reds that have mattered, and I don't see how they'll be seen as SUCH a threat on their own. I feel like Robin is a galvanizing presence that is giving people concern and maybe Samus would be better off without him to pursue new relationship, whereas if Samus leaves it just gives Robin fewer allies to trust. Neither has done anything... wrong? But they're getting the types of consequences as if they have.

On the flip side, the chaotic Yellow could actually coalesce into a more calmed group now that the Green power tension has been assuaged with Wario's vote off. I think Kazuya is doing all the right things but Squirtle/Falcon are all too wary of someone who does 'all the right things'... even though doing any of the wrong things would be worse lol. Kazuya even says to both of them "How can you trust me not to go for vengeance down the road?" Because of the position they have put him in, despite him leaving a good impression on both. I feel Squirtle especially could be a bit of a spoiler here for Kazuya's future with their extreme overthinking. They will never not doubt anything he says.

K.Rool on the other hand was chill and uninvested and new enough to the whole thing that Squirtle/Captain see him as a far more appealing option, and given the reveal about Dark Pit/Dedede's true allegience it could be everything K.Rool needs to just sever that tie as much as needed.

Yoshi and Plant feel like they're playing an entirely different game, and everyone else has to sort of play around them, which is a bit awkward. I really do hope that these two develop some sort of actual plan and aren't just being complete free agents at every opportunity for whomever to gamble on.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Marth is having a bit of a moment over the fallout of his move last round, which is deeply unfortunate since he was on the bottom of Green and they were taking advantage of him in forcing him to duel. They're not worth his guilt, and I hope he realises this soon. Opening his game up by breaking free of that group is a good look for him.

If Wario survives the duel he goes back to Yellow now, and that will make things very precarious for Falco and Pythra. Falco doesn't seem to realise it just yet, but The Ring could be as little as a round away for him with Pythra's Shield cards making her immune as it stands. The best hope for the Blues is for Mario to wake up to his position, but given his most recent messages to Robin and Samus, that seems unlikely. He's getting there, just a bit too slowly, despite the numerous warnings. The frustrating thing is, there is still time for him to course-correct with the right messages to Duck Hunt or Falco.

[Master Hand]

~THE MASTER FINGERS~

THE THUMB



The last 24 hours have been something of a public relations disaster for Dark Pit, and I don't know if he's aware of the extent of it yet? The core of the Pink Team has been educationally guessed all over the game, and worse for Dark Pit all his commentary against the Green Team atmosphere has as well. His relationships with King K. Rool and Wario in particular have been harmed significantly by some of the recent revelations. This was a scenario Dark Pit fully expected and was ready for, I feel, so I don't think he'll be that phased by it really. What it does all mean, however, is that any hope of a double majority at the merge is highly unlikely.

THE INDEX FINGER



Yes this is another tie for Index Finger, and covers similar ground to last round, but I feel like this credit has to be acknowledged all the same I could split the two by noting that Captain Falcon has handled the fall-out better than Squirtle, who has provided dubious explanations and is further hindered by the contradictory nature of his shtick vs his gameplay. That said I still feel like this was a necessary and correct move. Wario himself has acknowledged in PM that he intended to turn on them eventually, they were right to fear the Green Team. They've bought more time for themselves, the question now is if they've bought enough.

THE MIDDLE FINGER



As like-minded individuals, Sakurai and I understand the value of generally leaving players to their own devices in their confessionals. To compensate we include some questioning in our Team Meeting threads. These questions are always thought-provoking and allow opportunities for important insights, creating discourse that leads to better experiences, better games, one could even argue better lives...thus it was hella misguided and rude of Robin to decide nothing new of note could be said the way he did I would recommend Robin look to Mario for inspiration in future, who was so engrossed in respecting the process he responded after the reveal <3

THE RING FINGER



Truthfully I agree fully with Sakurai above about the situation between these two: Marth absolutely made the correct call at the last team meeting, and I don't understand where Wario believes he has a leg to stand on claiming otherwise, even if just in context. That said it is undeniable that at this time Wario does seem to have swayed Marth back into the fold with the Green Team, and that if that situation holds it isn't likely to be a line that is crossed again.

THE PINKY



While he has had the benefit of the Shield Sandbag I think it is clear that King K. Rool would not have required it to survive this round. He's made a strong impression on Captain Falcon and Squirtle, and has been sharing the information he has from his two previous tribes to great effect. I would be surprised if he became a specific target for anyone in the next little while, which is impressive for a surviving duelist post-swap.

[Master Hand]

I haven't found an opportunity to discuss Mario in the style of blogging I've chosen for much of the season, so I'll dedicate some time to him now: I feel like this outcome is more understandable from his end than others seem to? It makes sense to me someone who survived three consecutive visits to the Ring would stick to stability after that, and I do think it is genuinely impressive he made it through five votes after that start. I feel like even optimistic expectations would not have thought he'd overcome that stigma. Sure he's missed some telling signs since the swap, but I cut him some slack given the circumstances and experience levels in play here.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Yoshi is really going to rob us of rocks here, isn't he?

Surprised Duck Hunt lost the duel; I'd have thought he'd have seen some in the past but apparently the categories didn't suit? The duel was a bit too hard in general, so that's a lesson learned for next time I want to use that as a concept.

[Master Hand]

Robin repeating the shameful behaviour that won him the Middle Finger

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Dead at the successive Piranha Plant posts