So we're about halfway through the game, so I figured I'd use some of the day off to discuss the remaining cast. I'll give my thoughts and their journey so far, and where I think they might be headed, all vague enough so as to be unlikely to be too wrong, horoscope style!
Game so far: Yoshi has been really tough to watch for the last while, and that is basically down to the eggs. The eggs are the kind of thing you save for a mini or something, because there's not enough depth to the strategy to last a full ORG. A key part of the format is the implicit threat that everyone poses should they survive The Ring; if you vote me in, I'll return and probably want to exact revenge. Since Yoshi's loyalty is predetermined, there is no such disincentive to booting them. The players realise this and have exploited it for more than a week, with regular trips to The Ring. Watching Yoshi excel with puzzles is always a pleasure, though. I just wish Yoshi had allowed themself the opportunity to thrive.
Outlook: Things look dire for Yoshi, without any real allies and some suboptimal duels left to play. The lack of relationships will make them a target in the immediate future. If they can last a few rounds and the target shifts to jury threats, the Final 3 is within reach, but their gameplan is unlikely to earn the respect of many jurors. I would prefer the first of these scenarios for Yoshi, to spare them the undeserved pain of what will be a tough FTC.
Game So far: The Captain began the game on the bottom of Blue, before a fateful rock draw removed Richter and overhauled Blue's social hierarchy. He's since overcome any stigma from that and made a tight ally in Squirtle. The
Yellow Gold Team's array of eclectic, divisive characters made it easy for the Captain to develop strong relationships amidst the chaos and conflict, and he cruised to merge. Finding the last Smash Ball having spent nothing on the clue was smart, too. He's also been a dream to host, consistently funny and a really nice confessional.
Outlook: Currently having one of the strongest positions of any player on paper, Captain Falcon will contend for the win here if he can navigate to the end. It will take some masterful social play to avoid catching heat for necessary betrayals, plus maybe a duel win or two. Lying to Falco about the Smash Ball won't help though.
Game So Far: I live for Falco. He has been a huge character thus far, and that seems set to continue. Volunteering on Blue was a smart move to preserve unity there, but he truly hit his stride as a character on Pink, where he was able to avoid being thrown to the wolves by the core alliance of four and provide excellent commentary all throughout. He has been a little too loose with his shit-stirring at times, calling Robin out on his willingness to ditch Red teammates to his face and generally being a little antagonistic in PMs. Finding a Small Ball and using it to secure immunity here might have been a wise choice, all told. I also enjoy the strong point-of-view he has brought to his confessionals.
Outlook: It seems that Falco's cockiness will get the better of him sooner rather than later, but can anyone actually beat him? He's low on cards and can only afford to bid big in one round. Having to duel on someone else's preferred stage may be his undoing. Whether he rubs a few too many players the wrong way to win is another story altogether.
Game So Far: Dark Pit has been defined by a compelling dilemma from the opening round of the game; what do you do when you're committed to a team that you don't particularly gel with? His many trips to the Spectator Stands saw him answer that question, as he gravitated to Robin and Samus, along with King Dedede. That grouping dominated the Pink Team and Dark Pit made the merge without facing any pressure. The alliance became public knowledge, and Dark Pit's disdain for elements of his former Green team has too. In the story of this game, Dark Pit has been a major, complex character.
Outlook: Dark Pit is one of the scariest duel opponents there is, and I expect that he will have longevity here. It will take a very strong performance to dislodge him, and he is presently one of the most socially connected players in the game. The looming potential for conflict between Pink and Green could make things tricky when it comes to some jury votes; I could see Wario being very upset at him.
Game So Far: This has been an eventful ride if nothing else. Taking command of his game from Day 1, Wario drew five other players to the Green Team with him, where he was forced into a messy, coercive volunteering system to avoid putting allies offside. This brought mixed results, and his scheming would catch up to him quickly on Yellow. A duel and an unseemly fight with Squirtle didn't stop him from making the merge. It is tough to approve of Wario's overall game plan, but it has been entertaining to watch, and shockingly, he's managed to keep it together this long.
Outlook: Wario is likely to be a prime target in the early merge, and I expect his tendency to lose his cool and misjudge others will factor into his ouster. Having said that, he's outperformed my predictions before. I just think the number of Green people will scare a few people, and Wario would be an easy target to agree on.
Game So Far: I don't want to stick the boot into Squirtle, but my issue with Squirtle is that the shtick is really annoying and it makes me want to stick the boot into Squirtle.
I appreciate a big swing but it's a big miss for me. Beyond that, Squirtle has been playing well, fully dedicated to the game, and a frequent, detailed confessionalist. The level of investment and savviness is truly impressive, especially with the game's only unaccounted for Smash Ball. The positioning has been great too, but the exit strategies in making big plays alongside that cutesy shtick haven't been the smoothest. I find it tough to begrudge Pythra and Wario their negative sentiment.
Outlook: Squirtle seems fairly well-insulated for now, though they need to juggle who they send to the jury and who they keep around. The classic dilemma that comes with having someone who doesn't like you on the jury vs in the game to target you is one that applies here. As he's observed, lying about the Yellow Smash Ball might offend people as well. Of anyone, I think Squirtle reads most like a runner-up to me at the moment.
Game So Far: Having shared teams through the whole game, Dedede's game has been similar to Dark Pit's, with some upsides and downsides. The main downside is a lack of connections; having been substantially more low-key, there are some players Dedede hasn't made a particularly strong impression with. The main upside is that Dedede has been shrewd enough not to overextend, or to make his displeasure at the state of play at Green public knowledge. Beyond that, it's been a typically solid, highly social game for Dedede.
Outlook: Going into the merge, Dedede seems fairly well insulated from all directions for the time being. It's hard to see him duelling for at least a little while. I do think he's well-positioned enough to take his shot at the big guns when the time comes. He hasn't emerged as a front-runner in the eyes of the others yet, but he's also near-universally respected. One to watch, for sure.
Game So Far: Robin has been one of the players I've been most drawn to throughout the pre-merge. Like Dark Pit, starting on a Red Team he wasn't wild about, and the two bonded heaps in the Spectator Stands, becoming a defining relationship. Robin has been confusing to follow though, with him struggling to commit to a plan. The swap phase was particularly rough. He mishandled the Red Team members he voted out to establish a cross-team alliance, leaving Duck Hunt and others to out his core alliance to the entire game. Samus going inactive wasn't his fault, but when push came to shove, however, he volunteered for The Ring for a battle he loses 9 times out of 10 instead of using that alliance when it was already apparent to Falco and Pythra and not worth attempting to disguise. It has been baffling at times and not always engaging to watch unfold, but Robin's confessionals and observations are always a massive highlight regardless.
Outlook: Robin survived that untidy swap phase despite a dicey duel against Piranha Plant, and with that comes the position of the sole surviving original Red Team member. I know I was harsh on Robin's play during the swap, but being less connected on paper than Dark Pit and Dedede, there is a ton of scope to recover and potentially win the game. Even if the path there wasn't pretty, Robin is set to be a crucial player moving forward, and the strategic insight that comes with her experience is already proving a valuable asset. If Robin made the end and won, it would be a great story.
Game So Far: I think it's fair to say that when it comes to shticks, role-playing and sheer activity, K Rool was left in the dust. These elements had an outsized influence in the early game, so K Rool faced a tough few rounds. It took a few card plays and some frank conversations, but K Rool recovered very nicely from that early danger. His reads on the game are consistently accurate, and his use of cards to get a friendly duel and crush it was exactly what I wanted to see from the twist. He plays a more direct, punchy Australian Survivor-meta game, and has played it better than everyone else from a similar background in the game IMO. His only big error is how open he has been on his lack of faith in his challenge skills.
Outlook: K Rool will likely be targeted for expressing a lack of confidence in his challenge abilities while on Green and Pink. In fact, Pink has little reason not to target him if the swap plays out along Yellow/Pink lines. He'll need a lot to go his way to survive the coming days, and his lack of big cards will mean his fate lies in the hands of the others. Should he live long enough to see others make targets of themselves, he could be an endgamer, and while I think he does have a narrow path to a win, I think making the last week would be reward enough for him.
Game So Far: Pyra and Mythra have a really fun shtick that makes their public posting and PMs a pleasure to read. The way the situation on Blue evolved, I worried for them, having lost that early alliance. To their credit, they managed to play the swap really intelligently, using the option to skip a round in The Ring wisely and then choosing to join Falco on Pink, creating a delicately poised 2-2-2 split and hardly ruffling feathers while there. Samus going inactive was a lucky break, but they were good enough to take advantage of it. I think they're slightly underestimated by a few players.
Outlook: Pyra and Mythra have a lot of ways their story can go from here. Spending the last phase in stasis as they did, there's not much heat on them at the moment. The only way things can go too awry in the immediate future is if Falco is immune and they become a bit of a proxy target. We'll see how that goes; I am excited to see what they do and the choices they make from here!
Game So Far: Kazuya is funny. I can't help but laugh at some of the things he comes up with. Personal highlights include calling Yoshi an "insipid lizard", and everything about the phrase "bow before my accidental success". I wish we were doing episode titles for this. Outside of being comic relief, Kazuya has been a bit of a yes man for Wario, at least to his face. Behind the scenes, he has made strong bonds with Captain Falcon and kind of Squirtle? He's been able to use Wario as somewhat of a lightning rod thus far while developing these relationships. It's the smart thing to do, and there is a reason why he hasn't had to duel yet, though Wario has soured on him a bit recently for no good reason.
Outlook: Will Kazuya do well in a duel? Sandbag seems to think not, so I'm inclined to agree. If people are wanting to strike down a Green player, he could get eliminated, but I feel like he has ended up in a nice middle position where surviving the next week is within his grasp, and from there, who knows? I'd love to see him win, personally. If Wario ends up being responsible for his demise, that would also be somewhat poetic.
That Wario flip could have creates serious long-term doubts within the Yellow Team, but they've managed to rebuild and I feel these two are the key reason why. Captain Falcon's understanding of Arena is always impressive so it makes sense he'd succeed in that way, but early on I thought Kazuya was looking to play more one-dimensionally within the Green Team. That Kazuya has expanded his horizons so successfully, including the formation of a new trio with Captain Falcon and Squirtle, is very impressive to me.
