Okay, I owe you guys a chunky update. For post-game readers, Pit just lost to Yoshi in the duel and they played it early for once, so we can actually plan knowing who all the variables are. But Final 8 is a weird time in a format of one vote two boots. So it's not alllll that interesting either.
With the last round, I very purposefully left the board earlier in the round than I usually do, and came back later. I pushed the Yoshi train with the Greens, left them with the decision to join that or not, and let the Yoshi side of the game know that's what I was doing to calm them from doing anything crazy. I did expect the Yoshi vote to happen because him being a +1 vote for whoever is just too much power concentrated. Like right now, Cap/Squirtle can essentially decide one side of the vote with no-one else required. A situation I wanted to avoid, and it made sense for most people to avoid (who knows with Wario though). If Pit had pulled out the win, I do think this round would be much easier too. But not to be.
Just because I expected it to work doesn't mean I wasn't paranoid all the time I was away. Pit was a likely vote, but so was Robin. And sure Dede coulda been too. Kazuya was likely safe enough with his Cap/Squirtle contacts. However my mind kept returning to all the reasons it makes sense for Cap/Squirtle to go for me, and it was difficult to stay away. If I'd been here though, there's a good chance I stick my oar in the wrong place and catch the vote for it. Even from Green side of I accidentally flip out on Pit's bitter PMs.
So I stayed away and played HZD which I do want to also talk about, but I can't do that at the Aussie board yet after mentioning it to some players here
I mean, strategically and objectively, I believe I'm in a very good place in the game right now. Robin and Dede should be bigger targets for Gold. Maybe Dede gets a bit of less targeting thanks to his Kazuya connection, and I get the reverse since we have literally no relationship. But I do think each of Cap/Squirtle/Wario should want one of those two into the arena before me. Hell, Wario should be eyeing Cap/Squirtle by now too if he could just pop off the blinkers.
Pit not winning means the Green scare is significantly reduced unfortunately. I liked that as a big shield to break up where I wasn't really counted as one (maybe I was a bit, Wario called it that way). On the flipside Yoshi not losing makes the Cap/Squirtle/Yoshi(/Wario) set a little scarier. Shouldn't be any way that Dede/Robin come for my wig just yet.
I think targeting Cap/Squirtle is the right call tonight. Feels like with Wario's influence they might go for Robin in the end. No guarantee but it feels like it might. Cap/Squirtle don't need to leave and we'll cross that bridge when we get to it - but everyone needs to duel at least once. Robin leaving would be good for me in terms of both being a juror open to voting me and also freeing up Jury votes that might see his strategy as similar to mine but executed better.
Probably best to run through each player rather than keep rambling.
FTC has been on my mind too, so let's ponder that for each while we're at it.
My number one I suppose. I did not see this coming back on Pink at all. I doubt she did either
But with Pit out I might be hers now too. Hard to say - every PM has an undercurrent of "
I bet you say this to all the birds".
She does need to leave and I don't want to face her at the end, but I also can't be the one to cut her. I might revisit that logic if we got to F4 and we were both still here.
I'm in that weird situation where I feel like she deserves the win the most, and if it can't be me, then I'd most like to see her pull it off. At the same time, if she's winning then I can't so I should be doing something to either cut her game short or at least elevate my own.
Argh, what to do. In some ways I'd have much preferred Gold to vote for him last night. In others I'm glad it was Pit. He's so very casual with everything I never know where he's really committed. Like Robin is making plans around us three breaking up the Cap/Squirtle set later, but does he even want that? I don't know. It's telling that Pit went in before him, Pit was not exactly the bigger threat so much. His ties to idk .. Wario & Kazuya must have some merit but I've little to no read on it. Maybe I should be less wary of his true intentions because he's done what he said he'll do for the most part. I tend to doubt he will, then he does but I still have the doubts and the memory of the doubts.
His casualness makes it easy to make the mistake of thinking I've a good chance to beat him if we end up in FTC together, but I always get the feeling that he could pull out a huge W with relative ease.
He needs to duel before then somehow. I fear he's sitting on a pot of gold cards though.
Literally no relationship. It's still like sending work emails. All very formal. I had hopes of this becoming a little side thing after our days in the stands and him helping me get that Smashball, but it's not evolved that way. A big part is our TZs, his active time is my sleeping time outside a few brief dalliances. His connections to Cap/Squirtle keep him out of their sights and his connections to Green keep him out of Dede's. Why did he go for the Shield again? Money to burn? Fear of the game state if Yoshi left? :iiam I see him as very safe. I'd cut him for sure, but where do I get numbers for that ever?
Speaking of PMs that I send purely out of courtesy and never really out of any big planning push, Yoshi should hate me about now. I'm sure I am a devious, cocky, condescending prick right about now - that won't stop bloody voting for him at that! Wario just now pointed out I've voted with Green every time since merge bar the time with him. Well yes, three times for Yoshi. Green voted with me tyvm
I am trying to somehow build a relationship here with an approach of "
look, you set up this strategy and my only play is to go against it. That's your fault so suck it I'll be just as stubborn. That aside, let's talk about the interesting game theory aspects of it. " but I am failing miserably and I'm pretty sure he hates my PMs. But eh, what can you do.
There are still things I am curious about. Like how much does he influence a vote in advance. I assume he doesn't just sit back and wait for instructions but actively tries to input to the discussion - just leaving final say out of his own hands, but I really don't know how it works.
I'd like to keep voting for Yoshi but each time I do and he wins, it feels like another vote wasted. Yes Pit leaving has some benefits but I don't really get to claim them. And I've practically zero input to it being Pit except for maybe some influence on it not being me.
Add to that, people are starting to fear facing him. I'll take him on, fuck it. But I ain't volunteering either. Even if I'm happy to, if the vote is possibly me-possibly Robin-possibly Dede, and those two want to steer it away from Yoshi, then it will be storn.
Add another to all of that, he's starting to get more and more tempting to sit beside at the end. Both for me and in a manner which would disclude me from a spot. I'm sure there are good arguments why a batshit strategy like this actually succeeding is worth some votes, but from what I've seen from here - his is the only name of those remaining that I'm pretty certain I can't award. Feels disrespectful to the game to even consider. I may be miles off, but I'd say I'm not the only one thinking it.
Anyway, I'd happily vote for him again tonight. But it might be more important to say, split up Cap/Squirtle, or surprise Dede or something. Looking like Yoshi might have made it past the event horizon and entered 'Lock for the finals' area. I will tell people he's my main push all the same.
Low-key fears that there's a fifth egg-voter still around too.
I rather like Wario, but I think his game reads are pretty poor. Like coming to me to cut Robin what. I told you yesterday that's the one I least am into. Come to me with a Dede plan, or encourage me to target Cap/Squirtle or something actually feasable. I think with Pit leaving, his chances of survival have been boosted significantly, not just this round, but right through to the end. If that was his push more than Cap/Squirtle's, then fair dues to him. But like everything with Wario, I find it hard to think if anyone is taking him seriously or not.
I'm not supposed to let him know I'd like to see it be Cap/Squirtle here against his choice but we are dancing around that conversation despite the fears of him running it straight back. At least he's happy enough to take the chance at skirting past the round with both hands - even if he's unlikely to be a part of it. And if he's not a part of it, then there's no way we can make it be both Cap & Squirtle duelling. I mean the chance was always slim once Yoshi lived but maybe just maybe.
Would I want to face him at the end? Uhh.. maybe? He seems to be focused on big movezTM, yet I don't think many worked out. People like a tryer. I don't think he's made great bonds with anyone barring KRool either. But his difficulty-to-read factors in. Maybe Kazuya & Dede love him and that's why it was Pit not them. My gut says he's beatable, but far from a guarantee.
Can't neglect to remember that despite all his being targeted and scheming, he's not actually made it to the Arena as often as you'd think. And one of those was allegedly volunteering.
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I hate to lump them together but that's the way the game has gone. If one goes to Jury without the other then the vote is gone. If both do, then there's a reasonable chance of getting their votes. And if have to face one at the end - then I think it's wiser to face both at once in the hopes their similar paths through the game split any votes they might receive. They've played well enough since the shuffle to never be voted for, pretty obvious they are socially & strategically sound - very possible winners both. Robin and I were talking earlier and she sees Cap as the Brains of it (opposite to how I see it) so I don't know really.
I had hopes that once merge hit we'd hook up back together, but that never really materialized. Even the night I didn't vote Yoshi it was more a thing with Wario than with either of these. And I do want to see them both duel before the end as is an abiding goal of mine, so why not start that off tonight? And sure if they actually left based on that, we'd have a much more interesting tussle between the egg-gang down to just three, instead of these two tight and Wario going along with it.
Whichever one of these seems like the vote that makes most sense for me (if not just Yoshi again). Or they waltz to the end, and they won't need me to do it at all.
The alternate route is to keep plugging away at a strategy where I just vote Yoshi and avoid making enemies - free up whoever to vote for whoever that's not me. Yoshi/[person] leaves - it wasn't my fault. I do like that idea, but I don't think it'd be respected if it's the ONLY thing I do all game.
I suppose I should try to self-examine if people want to bring me along. I don't think anyone would hate sitting across from me, but most people have some better options and ideas. Kinda hoping to get to F5/F4 before too many people focus on it. Robin should think I'm beatable (and probably right). Wario too (though less correct). I think Cap/Squirtle wouldn't hate me as a third wheel if they couldn't have Yoshi. Dede doesn't care. Yoshi/Kazuya? No idea, but they likely want me gone earlier so they can get there easier.
Lastly, am I personally in danger tonight? I feel like no. Not from Dede/Robin I'd be as sure as you can be in these games. Yoshi/Kaz would like it to be, but I figure Cap/Squirtle will push a Dede vote. It's critical they don't hear from Wario or whoever that I'm serious about targeting them. Well, they can hear it but they can't believe it enough to act against it.
Wario becomes key in more ways than one. I want him to think before end of day both that I want him in the endgame and that he needs me somehow.
Am I in danger tomorrow? Likely. I was thinking of going all-in on the Shield tonight at 43. Lots of people have 43 no doubt, and the fear of a tied-count bounceback is real, but I've not been saving it for nothing.
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