Round 14

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Here for the Yoshi/Dark Pit duel thread banter.

Squirtle will be glad to have gotten rid of this.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

I suspected Yoshi would have the edge here but I'm still shocked to lose a big player like Dark Pit

This is a personal best for Yoshi, and lots of credit to him! He's really managed to get his interests aligned in the merge, and those five (!) duel wins have been stunning as well. It was a rough journey getting here, but he earned his path through, and he deserves so much good fortune after the Sicily robbage. He's even getting cocky with the banter in the duel threads, and it's so funny to see from the MORP Sammy we're used to.

I think the Pinks need to change tack ASAP, and target someone weaker. Wario is an option for them now, though I'd not be surprised if they aimed at Captain Falcon or Squirtle once word gets back that Robin could be on the block.

[Sandbag]

Expecting a 3-3 split here.

Squirtle, Captain, Yoshi -> Falco

Kazuya, Dedede, Robin -> Wario

Maaaybe Robin breaks off to do something with Wario/Falco though?

[Sandbag]

So yeah, right now Kazuya wants Falco/Wario in the duel.

Cap and Dedede both seem to think that it's a solid basis for the round but both are wanting to go deeper strategically.

Wario wants to send in Robin and has informed the Yoshi/Captain/Squirtle group pm of such, with caveats such as "Please don't spill the beans to robin about voting her" "if you're asked, say the target is Dedede" while Yoshi tells the group "Yeah, Robin already assumed you're targeting her dude."... also Yoshi has been telling Robin everything Wario is saying which is just hilarious. Even more hilarious Yoshi has asked Robin not to PLEASE not tell anyone. Like... the way you get people to keep secrets is that you explain why it's good for them to do so. You don't just say please.

I'm just gonna leave these here:



But of course, these players are not children and the hosts have not employed a skeleton man so you can imagine how well its going in this context. Yoshi is also telling Falco everything which is also fun since Wario also specifically asked not to tell him. Wario, Falco and Yoshi are SO leaky, Captain, Dedede, Robin and Squirtle are super deliberate with their leakiness to great effect and Kazuya is so unleaky to the point that those working with him assume that he isn't leaking things to them either.

Squirtle and Captain are just effortlessly guiding these two to vote however they want which is just A+ work there. Wario doesn't even feel how tight a leash he's on, despite the fact that he tightens it himself by not keeping communication lines open with everyone. This will be a hard lesson for him to learn but hopefully this game and especially this format will show him the importance of that.

That being said, Captain and Squirtle are discussing ALL their options but do primarily seem to want to target Robin at the moment to some degree, not really caring which of Falco, Dedede or Wario is up against her (with a preference of Falco). Main concern for them is that if Robin is voted in she has to be eliminated. It puts Yoshi in an interesting position since he's eliminated so many people and so could take on the role I predicted DarkPit having in just being the grinder to eliminate whoever else. More interesting in that Yoshi seems to be in no danger this round (unless people take advantage of Falco's hate-on for him) largely because he's such a challenge threat that nobody on any 'other side' would want to target him. That being said, I think it could be done in a scenario like this:

Squirtle, Yoshi, Wario -> Robin
Falco, Kazuya, Captain -> Yoshi
Robin and Dedede don't really matter.

If Cap/Squirtle tip their hand a little here and vote on separate 'sides' under the guise of eliminating a challenge threat it could go rather smoothly for them and of course Dedede could be included in some capacity without consequence. Not sure whether they could claim voting separately and 'against' one another but I suppose we'd find out.

That being said, It looks like Kazuya is making inroads with Yoshi to further ingratiate into the Captain/Squirtle/Yoshi threesome. They'd only need one vote e.g Falco or Wario) to control the vote entirely going forward if all members survive this, and it puts everyone in a fairly decent position. Everyone thinks they have a close threesome with Captain/Squirtle to take out the random outlier. And Falco or Yoshi could resume the role of the meat grinder to beat whoever else if it comes down to it.

It really is now or never to break up the Squaptain duo. Kazuya and Yoshi are probably ride or die with that duo if it survives the round, whereas Robin/Dedede could probably tug Kazuya back and forth between themselves and Squaptain if there is some move made here.

Falco still has some warped idea of Green being a thing even though Dedede, Wario and Kazuya all have such wildly different loyalties right now They are closer to almost everyone else than they are each other, although you can never discount Wario to just start up a PM with them again and say 'hey, we can run the table!' and Dedede is just adaptable enough to take it seriously, but it would test Kazuya hard.

Dedede seems to be going all in on Robin/Falco here from the tone of his message to Falco? Just letting her decide her opponent. So if that ends up being the go ahead we could have Robin v Captain in the duel, which could lead to Robin not being targeted if it gets back to Squaptain.


The messages are coming in fast and hot. 15 new ones every time I finish reading the last chunk so i'll stop there for now, but we're shaping into an interesting and crucial round.

I think the universal best option for a lot of people would be like... Squirtle/Falco in the arena. Nobody will come to that conclusion, but imo it's the best course of action to break up the blues, get two challenge threats known, and still keep a lot of loyalties in tact.

[Tabuu]

We have sadly not employed Skeleton Man, but there is still time to add a new host as Sans! We CAN bring it forth!

[Master Hand]

I'm a bit behind on developments and had a shitty day but I don't want to miss another round of content, so time for:

~THE MASTER FINGERS~

THE THUMB



I want to discuss as as much about the state of play as much as possible, so will be handing out quite a few ties this time I consider these two the Thumb for different reasons.

It has been a while since I've commented on Wario and I feel like the main difference since then is that it seems like the players have figured out his patterns? Whenever I browse Lakitu I see so much talk of Wario's communication tendencies and what can be realised from them, even when he isn't outright telling someone they are clearly not on the same side and so don't need to focus on each other He doesn't really have anyone who will go to bat for him without reservation anymore, ever since his stray vote on Kazuya I've seen more and more admissions from other that they don't really care where his vote goes as it isn't strictly necessary for what they are aiming to do. He's an interesting paradox because in the short-term it can seem like he will refuse to concede ant point or change his mind, but he's clearly worked on his ties to Captain Falcon and Squirtle, for example. I mainly chose to discuss Wario in this section because I can't see him ever having a lower profile and others will always have to deal with whatever he is trying to do at any given time.

Yoshi on the other hand now has five duel victories and it is very apparent that the egg strategy is something the others dealing with far later into the game than they ever expected they would I'm sure even if Robin assumed the worst for the rest of the Red Team he never expected to have been stuck in the merge with Yoshi alone for this long. Captain Falcon and Squirtle likewise have seen an starting bonus at the team switch remain present in their games ever since. Falco wanted to be rid of Yoshi and his eggs the instant we merged, yet as of now they'll both be in the Final 7. I've never really seen a variable like this so late in an ORG, something so difficult to remove and with such specific strategic parameters. I don't expect anyone to try anything remotely like this again, Yoshi included, so I'm appreciating the novelty of the experiment for now.

THE INDEX FINGER



Robin, of course, deserves belated credit for swinging momentum against King K. Rool once the opening was available to him, right after we all negatively blogged about those who weren't going to make that move for themselves This is such an atypical game to follow from Robin as his strongest relationships like Samus and Dark Pit are already out, and he entered the merge really having to find a way to rebuild clout for himself. He's even turned around his dynamic with Falco, although I hold little hope of ever tracing where that shift ever originated from or why.

I could've kept Squirtle out of this section or substituted Captain Falcon in for their side of the game, but I feel like Squirtle's Attack Card play last night is a move that is distinctly his, I can't not give him his due. There's no denying that Squirtle is a hoarder by nature and always has been. I remember in Ghibli where Haku was constantly hustling to acquire more Gold (the in-game currency) while most of the cast never thought to pursue such opportunities Until now he's been incredibly stingy with his card plays, this was only the fourth instance of him even bidding. By going all out to select the stage Squirtle sniped Robin's attempt to do the same, got to successfully give Yoshi a stage he wanted, further facilitated the exit of one of ORGY's most notable challenge sluts, and managed all of that while staying in the good graces of just about everyone. It was clutch and well done.

THE MIDDLE FINGER



I'm made sure to use a government logo here because everything is really their fault tbh

THE RING FINGER



This dynamic faded in my mind because Dedede had a couple of quieter rounds and then had Green Team drama to deal with. As of now they look to be working together for the rest of the game and knowing their history over the last ten years it is always an exciting thing to watch play out Reviewing their exchanges as Lakitu has been a highlight of the day, they're on the exact same page strategically and the humour they have towards everything around them is always iconic. With Dark Pit gone we're going to their full potential unlocked better, although now that Squirtle is being voted for it is entirely possible this situation is a temporary one.

THE PINKY



The way King Dedede is being underestimated right now is kinda bonkers ngl, and not a situation I'm used to seeing him experience in recent years. Obviously those that voted Dark Pit out were able to execute their move on him, but it is notable that they didn't consider voting Dedede first and hoped to beat a strong performer instead of trying out an untested one. And there is the other notable thing about Dedede: Nobody realises that he is the most formidable and credible challenge competitor remaining after Falco, and is highly favoured to survive the Ring against most of those who remain accordingly. I've seen people connecting the dots on Dedede's delibrate strategic positioning, but even those who are less concerned about him than they ought to be. The current jurors giving Dedede a good base of support in their prevotes, I expect some of those yet to join will be similarly friendly to him.

Squirtle I'm including here for the same reasons I discussed him before. He has a ridiculous amount of cards to play and if anybody is cognizant of that situation they have not confessed about it yet. With his Smash Ball that nobody knows about it is soon very possible that Squirtle could claim the Shield Sandbag for the rest of the time it is available, with nobody else able to challenge him. Right now he is considered the less credible member in his duo with Captain Falcon by everyone except Falco, so he kinda needs to break out from that situation or risk not getting the credit he feels he deserves when the endgame comes around.

[Sandbag]

That actually reminds me that this Dedede is reminding me a fair bit of Frank-N-Furter from way back when. Very subtle and just... not targeted despite being well liked.

[Master Hand]

It is amazing the difference the choice of opponent can make. Robin against Captain Falcon would have been an even matchup as they have comparable skillsets and mindsets in a challenge sense, but Squirtle is a very different opponent. There's a real chance this is a fatal switcheroo.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

This is such an all-or-nothing play from the three pinks. If Squirtle wins, when Kazuya sees he's left out of the loop it could spell trouble. It's a great time for Falco to go big on Shield, actually, because there would be a chance of a 3-2-2 supermajority sending both him and Dedede in otherwise. The other question mark is how Wario reacts to getting a vote from Kazuya. Is there a chance he tries to unite with Falco and Dedede against him then?

If Robin wins, I have no idea what happens, but I can't wait to see.

[Tabuu]

I think this move was incredibly dumb from Robin/Dedede/Falco here Not so much the targeting of Squirtle, I get it and I don't think it's an awful play, but the decision to just exclude Kazuya from the plan? What a stupid choice. Robin sent him a message literally 85 seconds before the deadline asking if he'd like to vote Squirtle which is more insulting than just a regular blindside lol

[Master Hand]

Well the lesson learned here is Captain Falcon was right, the universe really does refuse to ever let him finish in 8th

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Mar 2, 2022 19:02:16 GMT 10 Tabuu said:

I think this move was incredibly dumb from Robin/Dedede/Falco here Not so much the targeting of Squirtle, I get it and I don't think it's an awful play, but the decision to just exclude Kazuya from the plan? What a stupid choice. Robin sent him a message literally 85 seconds before the deadline asking if he'd like to vote Squirtle which is more insulting than just a regular blindside lol

I'm just pissed that Squirtle knows he's going in now. Way to ruin the blindside. Deadline adjustments really coming back to bite me.

[Tabuu]

Wario finding a way to be pissed at a result where he went from being a main target to being saved because the side he wants eliminated didn't follow his exact plan. Insane. He needs to humble himself.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

RIP the thirty-minute period of people thinking Kazuya voted for Squirtle. Captain Falcon swearing death to him was iconic.

[Tabuu]

"I misread Dededude. I thought he was a man with a plan like me, but is he just a bonehead here? He's happy just skating through?"

This move was the opposite of skating through lol, what is Falcon talking about? He's getting every read wrong after this result.