Round 16

[Sandbag]

Mar 3, 2022 19:52:36 GMT 10 Kazuya said:

Mar 3, 2022 19:49:00 GMT 10 Wario said:

Isn't King Dedede Batista in this scenario? Or am I missing something? 

You're missing a lot of things.

DEAD.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

With the departure of another egg holder in Robin ( ), Yoshi is now just a spare vote for Squirtle and Captain Falcon, who are killing it at the moment. Not a great look for them, as happy I am to see them go so deep for the first time.

Robin really came into her own in the merge and I'm really going to miss her here.

Sucks for Kazuya to vote himself out here, though I think Falco is potentially slightly to blame too for his absence leading up to the deadline in helping over the line to the necessary Captain Falcon vote. Not a great round for either, sadly, but I live for Kazuya dragging those who knifed him.

As for Wario, he's really lost his way here. If he gets to the end, I can't see more than one vote going his way.

[Sandbag]

even the lurkers have figured Wario out lol.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Wario has put the feelers out with Falco to discuss an F3 with him and Yoshi, and full credit to him, that is the best thing he could do for his game at the moment! It's easy to focus on his negative reception and emotionally charged gameplay, but I can't help but respect the hustle and the investment. Everyone else needs to focus on Squirtle and Captain Falcon, who have both played incredible games; Yoshi's inability to address this at all will cause issues at FTC I think.

[Sandbag]

Was just about to say this. I don't quite follow his reasoning in that message to Falco, but the conclusion is the same. Wario/Falco/Yoshi is the f3 we've known they all needed and Wario officially had the idea meaning he will go along with it.

All Falco needs to do is say yes.


The tricky part here is who returns. if Dedede returns then this plan will probably work.

if Kazuya returns?... I can see him siding with Squaptain and Yoshi, allowing them to 2-2-2 split the votes and just own the endgame. Falco being immune is a wrinkle though, and there is a chance that Kazuya goes along with it at least in an anti-squirtle way.

If not Squirtle v Falcon, whoever returns needs to vote against one of them.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

I'm honestly kind of in awe of Captain Falcon. As of right now, he's plotting to throw Squirtle in, right as he plans his coup de grace, playing the unknown Smash Ball to secure two consecutive immunities and a Final 3 berth. It would be a perfectly timed move. For Squirtle's part, I think he plans on making the same move later, from behind the cover of immunity, but it might just be one round too late. Captain Falcon and Squirtle have been so perfect together in how they played this whole merge, so I look forward to seeing them navigate the endgame around each other.

[Master Hand]

~THE MASTER FINGERS~

THE THUMB



Being the last one standing who has not dueled is often a poisoned chalice in arena. The achievement is always worthy of recognition, but there is a natural target that comes with it for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, unless the player in question is a complete non-factor, it increases their credibility come FTC and this is something players ensure they are not facing off against. The other dimension is that someone yet to duel can be a more attractive opponent than others who already have multiple victories, as tends to be the case at this late stage.

In Captain Falcon's case the title is going to make him stick out like a sore thumb for sure. Falco has been openly determined to ensure everyone goes into the Ring as is, and as the others start to look towards the endgame it is pretty clear that Falcon would be in good standing with the jury. I think he is going to have to discuss schemes with the others with the acknowledgement he'll have to duel eventually, but not necessarily *now* and that would help his chances. That, or getting numbers on Squirtle before Squirtle considers doing the same in reverse.

THE INDEX FINGER



I went back and forth on this one but I think I have to give the nod to Squirtle both for recent adjustments to his strategy and the continuation of things he'd been doing for a while. For reasons that elude me since it never seemed delibrate, Squirtle downplayed his confidence in challenges enough that nobody saw his victory over Robin coming. He then declined to work with Kazuya and King Dedede at the Final 7, to better create the opening where he can be shield bagged until the end against players who will have a harder time with the jury. There is the chance he gets figured out or is dueled with nobody realising the close call, but even if he does being a duel win away from all that is remarkable for sure.

THE MIDDLE FINGER

Mar 4, 2022 14:35:45 GMT 10 Captain Falcon said:

Silver lining, a new challenge concept I'm good at. Please may this be a mainstay.

This was such a betrayal to read ngl Each to their own and all that but Lost for Words is horrible and certainly is not anything I intend to be using when I get around to hosting again.

THE RING FINGER



Sometimes in competitive reality formats you reach a stage where some relationships raise a level just because of necessity, and I feel like that is where these two are right now? It has been clear for a while that Falco, Wario and Yoshi would all face their own challenges if they were to make to the end. This was the combination the Team Pink members bantered about ensuring never happened. I feel like Yoshi has always been aware that the egg strategy and his regular vote-outs would undermine him. These two however are more recently coming to terms with what has to be done to create a favourable situation for themselves, and since Yoshi has the egg handicap these two are going to have to put in the work to ensure it happens for them.

THE PINKY



And if the Final 3 of Falco, Wario and Yoshi does happen it would seem Falco is suddenly in with a serious chance of winning? The last week was a bunch of contenders lose in the Ring, with the back to back to back Team Pink losses of Dark Pit, Robin and King Dedede creating a clear shift in the hierarchy of those remaining and the jury itself. There is a level of undeniable hypocrisy in this shift because Falco has spent so much of this merge complaining about the concept of a side war, often to those who had no idea what that term even meant, and this reversal of fortune is largely due to his voting patterns shifting to a side based approach. Kazuya gave Falco on notice on his reputation from the early merge rounds too, so Falco now has room to stop behaviours that had become self-sabotaging. The chance is definitely here now for a better ending if he can take it.

[Sandbag]

An interesting thing here is that Falco's weird takes on the game and general strategy could obfuscate the actual blindside coming from Cap if it works out just right. That would be lolsy.

[Sandbag]

If Wario wasn't being an absolute clod with his lack of tact he could actually have had a chance to like... better his position, earn some respect, even take a run at a win against the right opponents.

Given the inactive jury, a latecomer could have a lot of sway... and sometimes a handful of good moves right at the end can make people feel good about someone they otherwise might not have.


But also... lol. Wario.

[Sandbag]

Cap- Squirtle
Kazuya - Wario
Squirtle - Falco
Yoshi - Falco
Wario - Kazuya
Falco - Cap

lol it is currently 2-1-1-1-1

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Some stray thoughts:

Squirtle playing his 3 earlier than this is slightly unexpected from him. 40+3 manages to beat all combinations of normal cards without revealing you have the Smash Ball until you whip out another 43 in the next round. Captain Falcon and Kazuya will feel vindicated in the move they made here, but if the last-minute shift hadn't have happened, Squirtle would have deserved the win that was likely coming. Now, if he survives, I think he's still the most likely winner, but it'll be a little more complicated.

Captain Falcon withdrawing the Attack play for a middling Shield play is a bit confusing to me. Multiple sources claimed to be making big Shield plays and Cap knew this. Surely the Attack play made more sense? He could have helped follow through on the blindside there.

Kazuya's bond with Captain Falcon came up clutch here; he is definitely in with a shot at winning here and benefits substantially from losing Squirtle if that eventuates.

On everyone else? It's hard not to escape the feeling that it's a bit of a shitshow. Like, Wario and Falco ought to be working together closely but can't get on the same wavelength ever so they let themselves get played again and again, and Yoshi intending to assist Squirtle with the Attack Sandbag is very much counter to their own interests.