Pre-Game Predictions

[Masahiro Sakurai]

Barrybran - Mario

+ I really enjoyed Barrybran as Joey in AusVivor Vietnam. He has a really good, sensible head on his shoulders, and is super witty to boot. I particularly hope he's able to inject his sense of humour into the character of Mario. He'll be a fast learner; if he clicks with the right people early, he has it in him to go far and really engage with the format.

- He'll need to shift up a gear from Vietnam to be competitive with the veterans. I also don't expect much of a shtick to get that initial social game firing. Accordingly, I worry about a slow start with such an experienced cast around him, and if ends up in the ring his inexperience could prove dangerous.

Brady - Donkey Kong

+ Brady is another Vietnam newbie, where he played as Gerald and was a great, good-natured player to follow. I'll be particularly interested to see if he links up with Mario at some point, given their strong relationship in that season and complementary reps. From what I've seen of him, he has the makings of someone who could stage an upset duel win or two against a more experienced player, too.

- He's also new, so a lot of what I said for Mario holds for DK too. Where I worry about Donkey Kong specifically is whether the format will suit his ideals. From chatting with Shonee, I've heard he's more the type to enjoy the adaptation and fluidity of a twisty game. This game will be much the opposite of that, in several ways. I hope he enjoys it and can engage well anyway.

Chris - Link

+ I am so hyped for Link! As David in AusVivor Sicily, he came in with a ton of bluster, which worked as much to his own detriment as it did to his own benefit, but it was a super entertaining ride. He is a relentless, competitive guy, and I really look forward to seeing how he applies what he's learned from that experience, because I know he's the sort to actively hone and improve his style. Link will have the dedication and dynamic personality to set himself up for success early, and I would say he has the rosiest prospects of Ausvivor Cycle 6's players going in.

- David overplayed his way into trouble in points, and I think with a rich strategic environment in this format Link could overplay his hand too. I could see him trying to coordinate card plays for an entire alliance, and it doesn't pay to be that guy most of the time. Though I would expect him to lose in The Ring against a lot of the cast, I think he might be able to prepare for certain concepts and use the selection power to find a way to wriggle out of there.

Macka - Samus

+ I really like Macka through our many interactions, and I think playing as Samus is a bit of a dream for him, too. He will use his really strong knowledge of games and Nintendo to relate to all of the shticks that are flying around even if Samus isn't that kind of OTT character. In games, I don't know as much about Macka's style; I've only seen him play once before as Amanda Kimmel, though that was an impressive social performance. All of this will stand Samus in good stead.

- This is more a hunch, but Samus will click with some shticks and not others, and I think that could maybe cut her off from some strong players. I know Macka has been super busy lately, too, so perhaps there's a cloud over his stamina. I hope he can avoid killer fatigue. There's also no Charizard in this game; Squirtle should be worried about being tanked by Samus as well. Be relieved that there's no 30th place in this.

Jyagaimasu - Yoshi

+ This is Yoshi's 3rd ORG, and already his ability with puzzles and the forums is second-to-none. Given the slate of challenges we have here, even if he goes into The Ring early, I could see Yoshi being very hard to finish off. This would be especially true if some of the more outwardly intimidating concepts get picked early. Beyond that, he's smart, earnest, and a bit of a Nintendo fan. That could go a very long way with some.

- I think Jyagaimasu might still come off a little noobish or lack subtlety. That could mean a struggle in having a broad enough social game to avoid becoming a target, even if I expect Yoshi to be a hit with some of the cast. Yoshi has pretty niche interests, so despite the puzzle skills, I expect duels like Town Census or Twenty Levels to be a grim prospect.

Zesty - Captain Falcon

+ From Pom Pom to Galadriel, Zesty is an icon in every game I've seen them in, and I do not expect that to change here. Very thankful for them picking this rep, too; I was worried about having a Smash game without Captain Falcon for far too long. With the combination of experience, theme knowledge, and a strong social game, I expect a lot from Captain Falcon. A real contender, IMO, but even if he falls short, we'll be assured a very good time.

- This is Zesty's first male rep, and with that might come a slightly different playing field to navigate. I don't know what the plans for Captain Falcon's shtick are, but there's potential that the comedic stuff might hit differently. I can't see many futures where Captain Falcon doesn't make the merge, but once he gets there I could see him peaking too early or standing out too much.

Yog - Falco

+ He is highly intelligent and prepared to be smug and villainous, which is always good to have in the mix. I think the dorky 90s rad/cool/etc shtick he has planned could be the perfect cover for a while, not to mention potentially super funny. Of all of the players, he's the one I think will be able to get the most out of the card attack system. He'll be a fast starter, a likely Smash Ball finder, and even a strong duelist.

- For some reason it does kind of feel like an inevitability to me that Falco will be too visibly brilliant, or in control for too long too early. This cast will hold him to account, and I feel like a power shift after the merge will claim him eventually, even if it takes a few attempts. I'd deeply love to be wrong though.

kdewgong - Marth

+ There is nobody as instantly charming or likable that I've met in an ORG, so I think Marth will be a protagonist here. As Jericho in Ausvivor, he has an impressive record, and knows how to win a game. A strong all-arounder, most of the challenges won't be an issue for him, and a format where it pays to slay them could make it tough to send him into The Ring. If we get peak Jericho, he could win this coming from a dominant alliance or as a scrappy underdog, off the back of a strong social game.

- Marth will be on holiday at the start of the game, and that could be a very troublesome setup early. It might be wise for him to claim the immune spot in the arena immediately just to have more time to plant his roots in. More broadly, I worry about his busy life and killer fatigue making it hard on him. Veteran games are betrayal happy, and that could wear him down. Nintendo banter could be tough for him.

GingaNinjaJack - Dark Pit

+ I am told he's a fearsome threat in challenges and as such, an arena game should be a happy hunting ground. I saw Granmamare's times in Ghibli, anyway. I don't really know Ginga from experience myself, but he is familiar with his source material and has played a few Australian games before. Combine that with the rep choice and it suggests he'll bring some edgy energy that is lacking elsewhere, and keep up well with anyone who wants to have fun with the theme. With my limited prior knowledge, I am intrigued.

- I got the impression from our chat that he's not above cockroaching to reach the end, which is cool, but it did make me wonder if they saw that as a likely outcome. A jury might not love that, so there are potential runner-up vibes if he plays things a little too abrasively. I feel like that is reaching though; if I'm honest, I expect a lot from him.

Scott - Wario

+ Another new player from AusVivor Vietnam, where he played as Daini, Wario will be an intense, dedicated force. It's a fantastic choice of rep for him. I expect he'll be able to adapt to the veteran style quite well since he seems to have a good idea of playing Wario. Strategically, he'll leave no stone unturned, which is an exciting prospect because I really want to see people engaging with the format. I think he'll leap at the chance to stack the deck in his favour early.

- Daini was abrasive and rash when he felt others had made poor decisions, and that caused him a lot of issues up to his boot. I'm curious if he can improve his perceptions of others; with the right reads, the energy and conviction he brings could be a huge asset. I do feel like he could get mired in conflict again. Duels may also be a concern.

Zezzame - Ike

+ Zezzame is totally new to these games, and with that can come an endearing freshness and enthusiasm that certain members of the cast would really delight in playing with. If they can find those people early, they seem clever enough to learn on the fly. They also seem very familiar with games, and that would help them bring Ike to life. I will be here for the underdog narrative, for as long as it lasts.

- This is going to be a brutal first ORG, with a big, experienced cast to contend with. Challenges will probably be rough, too. I just hope Zezzame gets to make some decisions, get some agency and have a good time, above all else. If Ike ends up going the distance, I will be pleasantly surprised. While I hope it doesn't happen, I wouldn't begrudge them for being overwhelmed by it all.

[Masahiro Sakurai]

JustJaking - Squirtle

+ JustJaking is not to be sniffed at in any aspect of the game, but his way with words and the sheer volume of his output are his big calling cards. I expect full engagement with every element of the format, and he's somebody I see as a likely Smash Ball finder. He's a creative force too, and although he's not a noted Nintendo fan, I trust he's done his homework. After some close calls, I know he has a win in him, and I'd love to see it.

- As amazing as Jaking is, I've seen him have issues with sticking the landing late-game. His creativity can bite him sometimes too; I've spoken to him about his Squirtle, and the shtick he had in mind sounds a little laboured. In trying to avoid the "obvious" he's determined to do things in a way that's unique to him, but that could make his life harder too.

The Doctor 23 - King Dedede

+ King Dedede is someone I've enjoyed for years now as a player and a person. I was thrilled when he accepted the invite. He's just so easy-going and hilarious, it's hard not to want to play with him, and even as a non-Kirby fan, King Dedede is the perfect rep. I see Dedede's strongest asset as the way that he uses his great social game to mask shrewd game instincts. He's another one I see in the top-tier of contenders.

- There's a trend I notice with Dedede having played with and watched more than maybe anyone else. Eventually, there comes a point in time where he has played the middle for a while, taking out all of the "big threats" that emerge, and then he's the only one left and things turn on him. Maybe it'll take some challenge wins, or a slightly tweaked approach, to avoid falling at that late hurdle again.

Doougle - Wii Fit Trainer

+ Another Vietnam debutant as Hayley, Doougle has a great analytical mind that will make for a really unique voice in confessionals. They have a deep knowledge of reality formats and games, and so I'm curious to see what they make of this format. Hayley went on a 5-challenge immunity streak, so I think Wii Fit Trainer will hold her own in the duels against veterans, as well. I suspect their long, infrequent message style will suit this context better than Vietnam, too.

- As Hayley, Doougle's activity level flagged in some key moments, and with a vote every round, I can see that being a potential issue. I hope they're able to keep up with the fast pace. The usual new player quandaries apply here too. For Wii Fit, I wonder how they'll do without Dani's social capital to give her the leverage to make moves.

Paparazzi - Robin

+ Witty, smart, and always compelling, hosting Robin is a real treat. Robin has a real knack for forming dynamics that can form the heart of a game, and I expect him to be an absolute social star here. I expect he'll have little issue earning a jury's respect, provided he gets there without too many hurtful betrayals. This theme really suits Robin, who could easily take this out if he gets a clean run at it.

- I think Robin is most likely to be derailed by a combination of killer fatigue and standing out too much. The issue that comes with being socially adept is having to shoulder the burden of many betrayals, and that can really suck. I hope that no matter how it goes for Robin, he leaves the game happy.

Des - Duck Hunt

+ Des is one of my absolute favourite people, and we've been through a lot of firsts together in games. It really means a lot to have him here for this first of mine, and he's picked the perfect rep for himself I think. Des is willing to do anything in the name of a game without regard for the risk, and the entertainment that brings is huge. No matter what happens, he'll be memorable, and he knows how to make an impression right off the bat.

- Des will happily take a risk. Call it an itchy trigger finger or chasing the big moment over the safe but dull path, either way, it can sometimes hurt his chances at the win. Maybe he'll volunteer for the ring here, or something? His PM style might not go over well with everyone; some find him "shady", and I'd hate to see him randomly blindsided early merge again.

Author999 - Richter

+ Author is super experienced, and his rep list suggests a pretty deep familiarity with the cast of Smash. In my limited experience with them, they were super likable as well. Having played AusVivor and a few other Australian games, I think Author will be able to adapt to a different meta well too. I think there's a lot of potential for success there if things line up.

- I feel like engaging with Richter as a character will be difficult for the majority of the cast, so there's potential for the rep nods to go over a few heads. I don't know what Author's timezone is, but I think that it could be tough to navigate with the frequent votes and deadlines, depending.

Stephen-Reed - King K. Rool

+ Ausvivor Hawaii's Andrew agreeing to play this is amazing! He's strategic and willing to make big plays, and I think despite not having played that many ORGs since Hawaii, he's capable of holding his own. Some of the mathsy challenges will be right up his alley, too. Talking through reps, I gave him a suite of villains, and the K. Rool role will suit him perfectly.

- I'm not sure what to expect from K. Rool, since it has been a while for him. There could be some rust to shake off socially and with forum familiarity, and with this cast, he might not be allowed the time to do so. He's not a huge Nintendo guy either, so that could be a limitation with any people that are keener on role-play.

Vanilla~Dream - Isabelle

+ Isabelle is a character that is very easy to make work in an ORG, with a ton of potential for an easy shtick. Yog was considering her with a lot of daily announcement post-whoring and general neuroses, and if our Isabelle has had the same idea, that could serve her very well. I don't know Vanilla~Dream well, but from their general demeanour it feels like a good rep match.

- I've heard from Firestorm that Vanilla~Dream isn't always super active, and a quick search of ORG results reveals a few early exits. That probably leaves a bit of a cloud over Isabelle here, though I imagine we'd all be happy to be proven wrong there. I'm not sure how accustomed Isabelle is to Australian ORGs and timezones, either.

Loonerty - Piranha Plant

+ I will be cheering internally for Loonerty to really show off his challenge skills. He was ridiculously impressive in Australian Survivor: Chile in 2020, and I expect he won't let up here. He's untested in the big, bad world of veteran games as far as I know, but I would back him to really leave his mark on the duels. He's super quick. Beyond that, he's also a naturally charming nerdy guy, and if he finds the right people, could find himself well insulated. Funny shitposts, too.

- I think Loonerty's social game isn't as strong as his challenge game; it's not bad, but he can be a little briefer in PMs, which stands in contrast to his super fun public posting. It might not be to everyone's liking, and he's ended up on the wrong side of the numbers at merge both times I've seen him play.

Gundham - Pyra & Mythra

+ I hear Gundham is pretty good at this, and also super competitive, which are much needed attributes to get through a month-long game. Beyond that, I don't really know them that well. I enjoyed them when they were Holt in Brooklyn-99 but it was hard to feel too close to them compared to the legendary Gina Linetti. I know they've played a couple of Tabuu's games, so I'm sure timezones won't be a big issue too.

- I think Gundham might be the only person in the cast I have blindsided compared to the several that have blindsided me, which is a damning indicator of a lack of ORG skill if I've ever seen one. In all seriousness, I think there's decent potential for a deep run, but I'm not sure they won't be outshone by a few of the big guns in the cast. It's hard to say for me.

Mikro - Kazuya

+ Mikro is a fun, offbeat guy in my interactions with him, and another previous winner of Australian Survivor ORGs. Picking Kazuya is a typically offbeat pick that will allow him to tap into that humourous side he has. He's got a fairly expansive range of game knowledge that will help him navigate the theme, and that should be a big advantage in getting settled early.

- I've never seen him play before, but I'm under the impression he's coming off a long hiatus, and that means he'll need to readjust quickly. Rust might also be a problem in The Ring, but we'll see. The cast is probably very different from the sorts he'd have played with a few years ago too.

[Sandbag]

Squeter
Squirtle is going to be a force as he always is. I don't think I've ever met a player with quite his combination enthusiasm, dedication and finesse. My only hands on experience ended with us being swapped apart and him being taken out for reasons beyond his control, but I was equally impressed with how low-key he seemed, especially looking back and knowing his reputation. I think the rep choice of Squirtle could work against him as it's going to add lovable to the list of traits people feel towards him and only raise his threat level. If he can successfully downplay even a little bit I think he's a solid contender to take this.

Locky Plant
I haven't played with The Plant before but based on his board presence I do think this is a good rep fit for him. He can be a bit prickly which will serve well here as it will seem more character flair than any kind of put off. I feel like luck more than anything will be a secret ingredient that can take The Plant far. I think this is a good group for him to insert himself into and I'm hopeful he'll be able to capitalise. Excited to get some first hand viewing of his style.

Ikezzmi
Ike and I have been friends for a good while and he's a clever duck. Very good at thinking through systems and mechanics and is excellent at communicating. The big question, as with all non-Survivor fan ORG players is whether he'll be able to make that cutthroat decision when he needs to. There's also the question of whether he really takes to this style of game and that's something we'll only know when the game starts. Still, if he does find some footing for himself I think he will, like other newbies before him, breath some fresh air into the game and perhaps throw a kink into the otherwise well oiled machine that is the ORG meta.

Captain Mami
What's there to say about the good captain that hasn't been said already? This is the first male rep they have taken to my knowledge and it will be interesting to see how they play that angle differently if at all. It is a safe bet that Captain Falcon will go deep into this game, and it's only a variety of other factors that determine whether they have a shot at the end or not. Will this cast vibe with Falcon? It's hard to say. There's a lot of newer faces around here and so there may be some disconnect depending on the flavour of Falcon but I'm not concerned, and an iconic player in an iconic rep is bound to serve something hot and fresh for everyone to enjoy.

Maroey
My only interactions with Mario have been tiny jokes in the sheep threads so I really don't have a good handle on how they will perform at all. The rep is an interesting one as its much of a blank slate and will allow people to view Mario as they are rather than through any character based lens. Also of note is that there are no other Mario characters to bounce off so Mario will not have anyone in particular trying to interact with him in any particular way from that perspective. This will be a good opportunity for Mario to flex his ORG muscles among a cast of varying skill levels.


Falcog
Without a doubt the most experienced player in this cast and probably one of the most controversial as well. Yog has a spectrum of performances and I feel without having played many games with him it's hard to get a feel for what he will play like. This 100% comes down to how he plays the character of Falco. I think that this cast could be receptive to an in-character performance as Falco's unique smug confidence could coincide well with his experience. And it could also work to have people be frustrated by him if their plans differ from his obviously correct plans. Very much a potential mover and shaker. I expect Falco to be a rallying force and could easily sweep up a crew of lesser experienced players into his fold. Whether he maintains control... that's the fun part. This is someone where I'm just going to focus on enjoying the ride and seeing what they bring to the table.


Des Hunt
Such an odd rep choice but I am so here for it. I hope that Duck Hunt is able to step up the social game a notch, as my experience is that he can be quite brief and to the point which can come across as a bit sketchy or insincere by some. I think with this cast it might be possible for him to push into that endgame though, and I think the rep could help cover for some of his flaws. Regardless of all this, Duck Hunt will be a fun character for sure. Never afraid of making a move. I'm very excited.


Dank
Link is someone I don't think I'm ready to experience . He seems ready to rumble at every opportunity and I'm surprised that he's going for a character that is historically silent. I expect Link to be very in your face with the major question being whether people get with his vibe or whether they shy away from it. I expect him more than most to engage with the various mechanics available and experiment with the format which is something I appreciate. If he can get onto a team that lets him play leader and encourages his antics I could see him doing well. But those are some pretty shaky ifs.


Gerald Kong
I don't know too much about DK except that he was pretty much always immune when I checked in on that season, so I'm expecting at least some level of challenge prowess to carry here. With any luck that'll be enough to integrate him into the game and give him a chance to work with all sorts of people. If he can make it deep enough and then immunity to the end that's a known path to victory.


Yommy
I love Sammy He's super endearing and this is a great rep for that. If anything I expect him to be a little too likeable, but this could just as easily go the same way as Alexis' Yoshi in Super Mario Party where everyone loves and trusts him juuuust enough to include him, but never so much to think he's absolutely in charge before he just is at the end and beloved by all.


Dainio
I don't know really anything about Wario save for what I've seen of his presence on the board. Especially with the choice of Wario I'm expecting a loud presence. Whether that is used to hide subtle gameplay, or to excuse overt gameplay remains to be seen but this entirely comes down to how he plays the character methinks. Still, always rooting for newbies to do well so gluck!


King Androol
I only know K.Rool from his original performance but he was very solid. Deft touch strategically and socially without ever crossing that line of just being #InControl and everyone knowing about it. I'm intrigued by the King K.Rool rep pick though and have never seen anything character-y from him before so i'm excited to see what he does with it. I don't know anything about challenge strength which is a major factor here, but if he can wiggle through at least a couple I think he's set to do quite well.


Katiedede
Dedede is always a masterclass imo. Always included, always important, always influential and somehow always avoids being recognized as any of those things. I wonder if that will continue to hold in a cast of less overall experience than other games and if Dedede's general soft grip strategy will be more visible than usual, or more effective. It depends on how people react to him. Still, Dedede is just a solid B+ in most every aspect of ORGs, which is actually exactly where you want to be so I would not be surprised by a win here, especially in this cast.


Dobin
Robin is one of my fave people. It's always been a bit of a shame we don't interact much outside of games but whenever we are playing anonymously together we almost immediately click in a big way. Robin I feel suffers similarly to me in that they are often seen as too good, too social, too strong to be allowed near an endgame, although he's had MUCH more success than I ever have in converting those to wins anyway. I think Robin is right at home in this format and if he brings his usual caliber yet doesn't make Final 8 I would be shocked. Also surprised by the rep choice didn't peg him for a Fire Emblem fan(presumably?) which is fun.


Marthico
I can only imagine how different this would be if Marth had gone as Jigglypuff instead. Anime swordboy vs beloved pink puffball makes for a very different impression and I wonder if this was a specific choice for that reason. I only know of Marth by reputation but everything I've heard is good so I'm expecting a strong and understated performance (given he went Marth instead of Jericho). I'm not sure how much character can be brought here but it also makes for something of a blank slate. Excited to see him in action!

Samthan
Samus Samus Samus. Provided she's gotten well I expect her to do solid here. She's not great at challenges but not terrible. It's the panicking more than the execution that's killer. She also doesn't have a great setup at the moment since we're mid-move and her laptop is... not good. (it can't even be unplugged since the battery is shot) so physically there's a lot of things in her way from really succeeding in a challenge focused format... But Samus is genuinely excellent at avoiding being voted out. She is probably one of the best I've ever seen at maneuvering within a game. She knows exactly who to talk to and exactly what to say to pull of some crazy moves. I don't know if they were saved but Super Mario Worlds (as Birdo) had her wrapping literally everyone around her finger to some degree, and she was only voted off due to some twist messing with her carefully crafted numbers. In some sort of Kirby game (as TAC) she had amazing control and was able to consistently save her closest allies who were in the minority despite the majority wanting to target them every round. My concern here is whether this game 'clicks' with her. If she's IN she's in, but I've seen her drop too many video games to ever have full confidence in her committed interest to anything Still. I know she is mainly here to ensure Samus is represented respectfully so we'll get that if nothing else.

Wii Fit Hayley
I am SO excited to see Wii Fit in action here. Someone I've been really excited to talk to outside of the game due to their game dev background and someone who from their comments on the board has some really good insight into systems and rules. Wii Fit is one of the people I expect to make the fullest use out of the Sandbag mechanic and I hope we get to see some subtle masterplays from her in this regard. I worry that she'll be a bit gamebot-y (from what I read a major criticism of her first game), especially for this cast who, at least among the more experienced, might not vibe with that as much... but if she adapts quickly and sort of meets people where they are at rather than wanting people to come to her, I can see this being a very strong performance.

Tarzuya
My brother I am so glad I was able to convince him to play. He has told me plans of being this absolute grump of a player who just hates Smash Bros and constantly lauds Tekken and I can see that going over really well and really poorly with various players. If nothing else, Kazuya will make me laugh since he has always had a direct line to the humor center of my brain, and if enough of that crafted clever-stupidity resonates with others then I can see people feeling quite warm about Kazuya despite his bad attitude, or even because of it. Strategically I think his biggest strength is reliability. This can come across as blind loyalty but I would say that Kazuya's biggest strength is the ability to remain adaptable and 'go with the flow' without ever seeming wishy washy. Nobody will question why Kazuya voted the way he did (because he probably told them). Assuming the long hiatus hasn't seen a change in his approach I can see this same strategy occurring again. Given his only prior anonymous game experience is getting pagong'd in 8th, and winning a game in a tied FTC with a very messy merge, I would hope to at least see him make the merge again. I also think the general newbishness of this cast will work in his favour since he'll slot comfortably between the newer players and the experienced. The biggest obstacle here is the Arena format. Kazuya is VERY low on his challenge abilities (I don't think he's atrocious but he's never won an individual challenge) and isn't the most tech savvy in general, and so depending on how into this game he gets I could see him just getting voted in at any time and leaving to most any competitor. I hope he practices a little bit with the challenges all being known, and maybe he can use sandbags to clutch himself something he favours.

Vanisabelle
I don't know anything about Isabelle at all, but Isabelle is a precious rep and I am hoping for something excellent since I've heard dA people tend to go hard on character performances.

GundaMythra
iirc they are very good? again, not someone I remember ever playing with. I also know nothing about this rep but yay for woman representation! My only hope is that Ike enjoys their portrayal because I know Xenoblade is important to them.

Richter999
I've never seen a bad showing from Richter so I expect we'll get another solid, social, affable performance. I don't know if I've ever seen anything particularly commanding from him though, and my most recent experience with Howl left a decent amount to be desired. I feel he can maybe be quite stubborn, but that could've also just been playing that character and Richter could be just.... vibin'. No concerns about Richter's longevity but I need to see what exactly he's bringing here to have an idea of how well it'll go.

Dark Ninja
I only caught brief glimpses of Granmamare but I enjoyed the presence, and apparently they're very good at challenges so this is probably theformat for them. Dark Pit is such a pick though and I'm super curious to see what someone wants to bring to that.