Part VII

[Falco]

Final 7 now but Final 6 for me. Woot woot!

I think whether Robin or Squirtle leaves here, we're  in the endgame now. So time for a new thread. I don't know about the rest of them, but for my game, that was a significant shift in lanes. It doesn't look like it so much from the outside - it's just continuing to stick with Green Pink - but from the inside it has meant a move on the Cap/Squirtle pairing, a confirming of Dede not being as tight with Kazuya as I feared, and probably most importantly a change in pace from seeing Wario/Yoshi as people to get rid of to people that I wouldn't mind seeing stick around.

I think that's my best F3 hope too:

I'm not sure it's achievable, but it's the closest I'd get to a chance at a victory by large margin.

More realistically, I'm probably on a path to an F3 that looks more like:

with Robin having an obvious hurdle to cross in the near future. And me needing Dede to duel before I'm really happy to sit across from him.

I don't love my chances there - I see Robin in particular as the hardest single head-on-head for me to get votes against/away from - but it's still a possible win.

This is a lot of talk of FTCs. Please don't read it as cockiness or confidence I'll make it there, there's just less point talking about my various ways I slip up before that point

I do have a good bit of confidence in my own game here, to the point that I'm not hugely pushed on what configuration is at FTC so long as it includes me. But this is tainted with flashes of paranoia about how terribly my game might be perceived. If someone really wanted to mess with me right now, they could start hammering home how I'm seen as a bit dragged by Pink and I would probably eat it right up.

I'm pretty confident in my duelling skills too, thanks to knowing what is coming and removing the worst of them a long time ago. But of course duels are always a little bit random. One network issue or brainfart away from death - so I will of course try to avoid a route that revolves around my having to fight three times.

* * *

As for last night, I think things went rather swimmingly for the most part. Cap would have been a better person to KO over Squirtle. I think Squirtle at FTC would be a bit of a mess and put Jurors off if it's a wall of unsquirtan squirts and squirtled handwriting. I also think my own connection to Squirtle was a little better than to Cap. I have the shield now so no huge deal in the end for this round - but maybe that comes back to haunt me in the future.

I should really reply to Squirtle's PM soon, in case he does die before I get the chance to. But I've gotta work and he needs some time to cool off a little. I wrote this at lunch but I'm not going to post it until later when I can actually also answer some PMs.

Other bonuses from last included Dede not telling Kazuya anything. Getting some actual quality PMs in with Yoshi. Prying Wario open a little bit to the point where he might 'come up with a plan for us' soon

Downsides from last night include turning on Blue thus inviting a return swipe, not telling Kazuya anything, hearing that Squirtle heard (from Robin he said) about the plan before it actually happened, and getting confirmation from Yoshi that Yes, he will be seeing his strategy through to the death.

* * *

I've had an idea in my mind for a lot of the game. I've been shy about mentioning it to many since the merge really, because too many people fall into the category and it could be turned around on me pretty easily - And that is that everyone should duel at least once. I don't want to sit across from anyone that can claim that at FTC. Squirtle in now. Robin's taken a hit that wasn't just the voluntary one. Cap/Dede/Kazuya to go.

I also didn't say it since I personally only went in when I volunteered But I don't think Wario/Yoshi are focused on that element. So now, when I go to Wario and say I think it'll be Captain Falcon next from this side. I'm immune - you think you can make it Kaz or Dede from yours? I can be genuine with him. It doesn't require a whole lot of commitment from him to try force what he was already thinking. He knows my main plan is not targeting him. This can be the new 'keep voting Yoshi' strategy but a bit more nuanced.

Watch Robin win this now, come back, and Wario target her again..

[Tabuu]

Mar 3, 2022 0:30:47 GMT 10 Falco said:

More realistically, I'm probably on a path to an F3 that looks more like:

Who leaked the returnee twist to you? They're done for

[Falco]

You can really see how I just slotted Robin into the Myrtle slot after she left

[Falco]

Oh, one more thing to talk about.

Mar 2, 2022 20:34:47 GMT 10 Robin said:

IEnjoy having to plan around two very different outcomes for half of the round, y'all

Fuck them both for this.

Although it's more than two.

Path 1 & 2 - Should Robin die, then I think it's kinda better for my endgame, but worse for my routes between here and there. Cap & Squirtle just hook back up. Wario doesn't budge. Yoshi stays under the thumb. I'm immune so they take their pick of Dede & Kazuya.

Dede seems to make more sense bigger picture, but Wario said that he 'knows what he wants but he doesn't seem to be able to get it'. That sounds like Kazuya to me, after he just voted Wario and knowing Wario sees Dede's game as kinda been dragged/lucky.

I'd like to think we target Cap, and take away another clean sheet. But it's not me duelling so I may have to cede to whoever Dede wants to go against.

Path 3 & 4 &...  - Should Robin live, well then there's opportunities to work with Cap (not this round, but later). Wario is more likely to get itchy feet and join me. There's even a half-baked plan where we (I say we, but it's not me really) have Robin & Wario start to control Yoshi's vote instead. Like if Wario was pushing Kazuya, why not do that with Robin & Yoshi? Meanwhile Kaz & Dede & I vote Cap. Or Dede & I do, while Kaz & Cap vote Dede. All viable. But all far-fetched.

A new power-bloc of Robin/Wario/Yoshi is a little daunting though. That's an F3 Robin would love to go for. So I'll suggest it but secretly hope it doesn't pan out.

[Falco]

I think I understand this at last

Mar 2, 2022 11:14:05 GMT 10 Falco said:

I should just ignore these mind games but instead I will post it here and speculate on it endlessly.

Yoshi said:

Yoshi will share a list:

Dedede
Falco
Robin
Kazuya

That list can be read either side and depending on which side is the nominal vote for a certain criteria. Please don't share, but feel free to speculate and act accordingly. You didn't hear this from Yoshi, Yoshi is very much keep getting sworn to secrecy by Wario, but Yoshi isn't that kind of player, so Yoshi will keep doing things like this.

Is this supposed to be Wario's vote requests to Yoshi? It is useless without the criteria.

That is who Wario would vote to win. He actually rates Robin higher than Kaz but vote for Kazuya.

In fact I'd say that is a list he has asked Yoshi to do later - in case he left last night.

I mean.. makes bringing Dede to the end a little more tempting I suppose. But I also know how skewed Wario's reads are, so I'd be best off continuing to ignore it.

[Falco]

Falcon is back online.

I *thought* after the message earlier, I would be top of his box, but I haven't been.

I can wait, but I'm also getting tired. My default vote tonight is him, with some dependency on both the duel result and what Dededede wants to do.

* * *

Separately to that, I need to avoid putting too much weight on Wario's opinions. Yes he has Kazuya rated highly, but hjust because I find Kazuya hard to read, doesn't mean I should just take Wario's word in that area as bible, especiiially sinc ei know he's had poor reads elsewhere. Equally he thinks Dede is shit, and I seriously doubt that.

I can't disagree on his Robin rating, but even then, it's only bolstering the opinion I already have.

[Falco]

I am also curious as to if there was some pattern that led to all those 33s this morning. I can't think of an obvious one.

[Falco]

Tab-entered too soon.

Yoshi reckons Kazuya is sitting on a stack of cards. I did see the 23 earlier, which is at least a pattern I can read - aiming for one more than anyone's 22s. That implies conservative & clever bids, which does make me think Yoshi is about right.

[Falco]

Ugh, I can't with Kazuya.

He may well be correct, and especially from his perspective. Doesn't mean I like to hear it though. Can't we just say we never clicked as we hoped and leave it at that?

[Falco]

I knew the confidence in my game couldn't last.

Between seeing Wario's list of threats to win (even knowing I don't agree with his reads), Squirtle not bothering to reply to my explanation until he knows the result (don't blame him), and now Kazuya talking about my reputation of just telling everyone conflicting things, I suddenly feel much more shook. I've been to FTCs where I got 0 votes and it is not a good feeling.

It makes me inclined to push much harder for a Kazuya vote tonight. And to think more seriously about how I can get an F3 with Wario & Yoshi.

But I also feel like that is very reactionary.

Mostly I'm just tired and cranky, and that duel hasn't finished yet so I can't plan, and I know tomorrow is another early one at this rate. And not a check-in early, but an actual be-here-to-play early one. Least sure I've been in an end-of-night prevote yet.

I suppose I am immune. Maybe I should have a cool-down, let whatever happen happen. That feels like letting the game slip though. There's a lot of things need to happen between now and the end, and just dropping a full night is not helping that.

[Falco]

at Kazuya's offer tbh.

That's like, not any of the things I want here. I don't even know how to respond to it. Lie some more? He makes it sound so take-it-or-leave-it.

Maybe I should have been more honest with him before so he'd know more what I do want >:)

[Falco]

Welp, I have played this round rather poorly. Maybe being immune is my Achilles' heel

I should not have sent that last message to Kazuya. I probably should have stayed away from conversing with him altogether. I was too tempted by another yoshi-like breakthrough but it's gone the opposite way.

I should not have let Yoshi's talk of Kazuya's card count influence me so much.

I probably should answer Cap's PM right now but I don't trust myself after the Kazuya chat. I don't imagine I'll be any more on the ball in 3.5 hour's time sleep though.

And to cap it all off, my Z key is sticking and I keep typing Kauya or else Kazzzzuya.



I blame it all on Robin delaying the duel. Yes, the keyboard and all.

[Falco]

Something something 'early bird' my ass.

I am late. And a 3-2-2 here is very possible now.

[Falco]

Arena streak to the end y/y? Didn't work as Tira or Maylene but there's some irony in that it was asked of them and I landed myself in the same situation.

This round is much simpler now and awkwardly falls on the weekend. We needed all that time last round, not this!

Regardless of whether Dede/Kazuya win here, the only real play is to try convince Wario that coming fourth is a bad idea. He'd be much better off coming third behind me I don't know if he goes for that.

Then there is a super long shot play of Squirtle wanting Cap in the Ring at some point. I chalk this up as pretty much impossible, but it feels wasteful to ony have one plan on the go.

Realistically, fast forward to Sunday and I'm duelling already against the current winner.

And if I win that, I'm duelling aginst Wario I suppose.

And if I win that, I'm duelling against whoever I choose that's not immune. Cap if I can. *maybe* at this stage Squirtle throws a sneaky Cap vote down - but I can't see it paying off until then.

I wonder if a bid of 23 is enough to steal the shield some night. I somehow doubt it.

[Falco]

It's gonna be a looooooong weekend.