Part VIII

[Falco]

This may be a very short section to my confessional as I'm currently in to duel with Squirtle. But optimistic as ever. Skyloft is the duel I kept putting at #1 on my preference list, so I stand a good chance. Unfortunately it's also chosen by Yoshi by request of Squirtle, so he fancies it too My plan for the day is to practice the Dede/Kazuya duel more than once - seeing as that also revolved around hidden embedded images, and use that as prep for my own run. Which will be later, once my house quietens down a bit.

But fingers crossed I can win that, and sneak into the F5, and then who knows what.

I'll fully admit I didn't see this morning's result coming at all. Once Wario turned down the option to work with me/Kaz (he thinks I also needed to duel) I assumed we'd just see me/Kaz face off then we could retry at F5 if I survived. That's two rounds in a row where Kaz was doing stuff that I didn't know about/understand, and not knowing things at F5 is not a good place to be. This round was huge for Kazuya too. He can now paint his (still idiotic imo) move last round in a much better light since it was leading to this. In retrospect I guess Cap was hinting that Smashball should take priority over me targeting him, but I suppose he wanted me to be the one to do it and save him the betrayal. If I make it to FTC, I will probably revise history so that I knew that was happening and I wanted to force him into the light I can already feel my brain repainting today's shock as something I woulda known about if I'd not been so laser-focused Sure, sure, keep telling myself that.

I don't have all the knowledge, so I don't really know what Cap's plan is here. Maybe he's just shit-scared of duelling at all? Maybe he's as broke as he claims and needed to avoid shield fuckery? Maybe he's super loyal to Kaz (if so, why put him in last time).

Let me lay out why I think it was a bad idea though (but again idk shit, this is just what I see). He had a clear path to the win here. Just go with that four to four. Pit Yoshi & Wario against each other. Or any two really, even himself. Get to FTC and win. His game is viewed as stronger than any of them I reckon - i.e. Wario/Squirtle/Yoshi. Maybe he wants shields here. Because Kazuya after this move has gone way up in my opinion, and I'd bet some Jurors will see this as a definite move from him to avoid the inevitable. So now Kazuya has to be targeted. And I suppose I am seen as someone who will hoover Pink votes up (I beg to differ) so he can argue to Yoshi/Wario how I gotta leave. Is that it? Seems very complex. Coulda just let the 2-2-2 happen, not sent Squirtle to Jury burned and won with relative ease - possibly duelling once or twice on the way I suppose, which is why I think maybe he's just scared of duels.

Anyways, all of a sudden the F3 seems achievable. My fortunes have changed hella about actually winning that. Wario's game suddenly looks way way way better than back at merge. Yoshi has all but shed the tag of being just dragged along with no agency. I do think I beat Yoshi though - Wario, not so much. But I lose to Cap (maybe?) & I lose to Kazuya so this is now something to aim for. Wario wants it too, very much so. I think he was half-committed before this move but now he's all about it. Another reason it was a bad move on Cap's behalf.

I suppose the plan would be to get votes next round on Cap/Kaz. Tricky to pull off. I figure Yoshi will work with Wario more than Cap now .. but maybe he won't? Let assume he does cos without him it's as bad as ever. So that is three votes at our disposal. Where would we get a fourth? Which of Cap or Kaz is going to vote for the other? What reason could make that happen after this round? Probably not much leeway there at all. Might be the case we can only get one of them in per round, and who knows what Shields get in the way there. Based on today's bids, I don't think my 21 is going to be enough in any round.

Anyway, that's all for later. First I have to win this duel.

[Falco]

Hey Masahiro Sakurai, if I KO Squirtle here the Shield moves down the bidding list to Wario, correct? As opposed to previous holder Yoshi?

Mar 6, 2022 19:30:00 GMT 10 Masahiro Sakurai said:

I have the results! Claiming the Sandbags are:

Squirtle - 44 points
Wario - 39 points
Captain Falcon - 21 points
Yoshi - 4 points

[/quote]

[Master Hand]

Mar 7, 2022 0:57:43 GMT 10 Falco said:

Hey Masahiro Sakurai, if I KO Squirtle here the Shield moves down the bidding list to Wario, correct? As opposed to previous holder Yoshi?

Mar 6, 2022 19:30:00 GMT 10 Masahiro Sakurai said:

I have the results! Claiming the Sandbags are:

Squirtle - 44 points
Wario - 39 points
Captain Falcon - 21 points
Yoshi - 4 points

If Squirtle loses in the Ring then nobody will be immune through the Shield Sandbag at the Final 5 Meeting.

[Falco]

Ooh, that adds a layer of fire under Wario. Interesting.

Sorry for not duelling yet, I ended up with visitors through the day. A house full of hatchlings

Haven't even started the practice yet.
Now, to ignore the PMs and do that, or to get to PMs..

[Falco]

Okay, I needed that win.

(Obvious statement)

On the way out, I reconnected with Squirtle. I think most would believe he's not ever a Jury vote for me, but I believe I can get him. There is a repeating pattern here through the game where I've been close with people just as they leave. Their last point of contact as they leave in fact. Many people write that conversation off but that's as foolish as not speaking with the potential mutineers in the early game. It is no accident that a lot of Jurors have left with some kind of positive impression of me. So many votes are decided long before FTC.

And he did warn me about my messy middle-game needs explanations, so now I have secondary confirmation on that apart from Kazuya's thoughts. I will bear that in mind if I get the chance to talk about things.

Next up .. Cap v Kaz if I can swing it?

At the very least, one of them. As much as both are being talked up here in game, I think they had some dumb dumb moves in the last two rounds which I could shit on at FTC. Might drag them down to my level then

That said, it doesn't make sense for 'people' (Cap) to believe I'm voting Kazuya. I do believe Wario wants that F3 with me & Yoshi included and is working toward that. Maybe he'll be happy to see me lose at F4 but for tonight, he shouldn't be targeting me. I opened that conversation with Yoshi too, but no reply as of yet.

Wario has a kind of impressive game here, and shouldn't be taken lightly as an F3 opponent. But from talking to him in PM, I don't expect he'll present well at FTC - passionate sure - but a bit scattered, a bit all over the place. Hit him with any cold hard logic and he might buckle.

Kazuya has a way that me & him both get guaranteed F4. I am intrigued of course, but working towards seeing him fight tonight.

[Falco]

Cap - conversation at a stalemate but I'm open to him proposing me vote someone that's not him. Unsurprisingly, nothing forthcoming (yet anyway)

Kazuya - "I have a great plan but I can't tell you until tomorrow basically."

Yoshi - "I have read everything and will respond when I have more time later"

Wario - He's the one one I already know the goal of

Ugh. I should probably go to bed (current time 2am) and come back at 7:30/8am or so. But I guess I should get my head around exactly how Wario sees this all playing out. Because if the assumption is me & Kazuya on Cap and then Kaz comes along tomorrow pushing a Yoshi vote or something .. well hawkward.

[Falco]

Here it comes. The Waranioa. Get the fuck out of here with a me v Cap duel plan lol. No I'm not in for that.

He gets three more PMs, then I'll let him stew through to morning.

[Falco]

Whoops, I got the wrong end of the stick there. He was asking for permission to talk about it with Kaz/CF, not to actually set it up fully.

Bit of a 'you guys ask permission?' moment then followed.

[Falco]

After that win tonight I'm back on a confidence high. Put me in FTC Coach, I can take any of them.

Cap & Kazuya's last two rounds actually make them a little more appealing to face - though I'm sure them making it all the way would cancel that argument. And I wonder if it's wise to go with Wario or Yoshi at all. They do seem like the easier path (plus they sound genuinely committed), but I am about as good at reading Juries as I am at guessing IDs. i.e. hilariously terrible.

Time to sleep and try get back in four hours somehow.

[Falco]

Let me write this while I'm confident so I can re-read it when I freak out later in the game at my actual chances.

Things I've got going for me:

- Many Jurors/future Jurors are in my court -

- - Good chance of a vote: Myrtle, Robin, Wario

- - Not insignificant chance of a vote: K.Rool, Dede, Yoshi, Squirtle

- - No preference, but open to voting me: Marth (opponent depending), Cap, Plant

- - Slim chance but not zero: Pit, Kazuya

People don't seem to see that as more threatening than Cap's streak or Kazuya's game. Two things I've emphasised. Cap's streak I've really hammered the point home to everyone.

Fine by me.

- I've utilised the format in a few ways -

- - My main two strategies were to keep my options open, and to always keep an obvious target on my lips. You can't control the post-merge with the vote set-up, you'd be a fool to try. Having a variety of people around who didn't want to target me directly, and a few clutch timed shields filled in the gaps.

- - Keeping options open means things like

- - - duelling back on Blue to keep that hope alive later (added bonus, get to choose a tribe instead of random'd)

- - - choosing Pink instead of Gold at that junction to meet all the new people, and avoid starting a Blue scare on Gold

- - - constantly talking to mutineers. Even Plant must have been sick of me by the end.

- - - constantly telling mutineers not to join my tribe They should appreciate it down the road (added bonus, find out where I stand with Blue/Pink)

- - - make the K.Rools of the world know I wanted to fight their corner given the chance.

- - Obvious targeting means

- - - if everyone knows my target, then it's not them

- - - this ties in with my obvious TZ limitation. I took that limit and made it a strategy

- - - Yoshi from merge. Yoshi can't hate it due to eggs and my lack of. Cap/Squirtle can't hate it because it's not a direct attack

- - - after that, those yet to duel. This quickly became just Cap

- - I've played rather defensively, which is the right play for this format.

- - I did some clever things with cards early, removing duels I wanted gone, leaving ones I'm strong at remaining. Better than trying to save up for late game Shields. Meaning when it came time to duel, I could win whatever without needing Attack Bag.

Sloppy play is something to address. But it can be spun positive. Particularly to force away any chance of the first round being Robin v Myrtle which would have killed me. Secondly to establish a Yoshi-voting pattern.

[Falco]

Wario signing off with 'yeah, I'm likely a Cap vote too' doesn't fill me with confidence. He should be a Kazuya vote here.

Hmmm.

May be more duels in my future. But if he fucks me here, I'll fight him at F4 just out of spite.

[Falco]

I probably sent that about ten seconds too late to panic Cap into a last minutes switch to Yosh (lol).

Lets ride the whirligig.

[Falco]

I mean I think this is what happened

me on Cap
Wario/Yoshi on Kaz
Cap on me

Kaz on .. :iiam Wario? Me?

[Falco]

Even if that's right, it's too early to compute results & revotes. I'll just wait and then stick to pushing how Cap needs to duel before he wins to the end.

[Falco]

THERE'S NO SHIELD AFTER THIS?

MY BRAIN FUCK.